Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) is an upcoming methodology that is considered to have advantages over the traditional decision theoretic and game theoretic approaches. ARA solutions for first-price sealed-bid (FPSB) auctions have been found but only under strong assumptions which make the model somewhat unrealistic. In this paper, we use ARA methodology to model FPSB auctions using more realistic assumptions. We define a new utility function that considers bidders' wealth, we assume a reserve price and find solutions not only for risk-neutral but also for risk-averse as well as risk-seeking bidders. We model the problem using ARA for non-strategic play and level-k thinking solution concepts.

中文翻译：

---

首价密封投标拍卖的对抗性风险分析

对抗性风险分析 (ARA) 是一种即将推出的方法，被认为比传统的决策理论和博弈论方法更具优势。已经找到了用于第一价格密封投标 (FPSB) 拍卖的 ARA 解决方案，但只是在强假设下，这使得模型有些不切实际。在本文中，我们使用 ARA 方法使用更现实的假设对 FPSB 拍卖进行建模。我们定义了一个考虑投标人财富的新效用函数，我们假设了一个底价，并不仅为风险中性而且为规避风险和寻求风险的投标人找到了解决方案。我们使用 ARA 为非战略游戏和 k 级思维解决方案概念建模问题。