Climate change has led to major shifts in the timing of biological events, with many studies demonstrating earlier phenology in response to warming. However, few of these studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the phenology of larvae in marine species. Phenological shifts can result in mismatches between consumers and prey and hence affect growth and survival of individuals, and ultimately population demography. We investigated the temporal changes in phenology and abundance of the larvae of dominant brachyuran crabs in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (eastern Canada) based on plankton collections spanning 1982–2012. The Gulf of St. Lawrence has warmed since the early 1990s, and our analyses revealed that larvae of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and toad crabs (Hyas spp.) exhibited a significant trend towards earlier phenology over the 30‐year study period. This shift in phenology appeared to be a consequence of the effect of climate warming on both the timing of hatching and larval development rate. Larval abundance responded differently by crab taxon to climate warming, likely due to differences in thermal tolerance. The warming trend was unfavourable to snow crab, which is the most cold‐adapted and stenothermic of the taxa examined in this study. The abundance of snow crab larvae was lower when sea ice retreat occurred earlier than day 110 of the year and sea surface temperature was higher than 8.5°C. On the other hand, larval abundance of rock crab (Cancer irroratus), which prefers higher temperatures, was positively related to surface temperature.

中文翻译：

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圣劳伦斯湾（加拿大）的幼虫物候和优势短臂蟹的长期趋势及其驱动因素

气候变化已导致生物事件发生时间发生重大变化，许多研究表明气候变暖是物候较早的现象。但是，这些研究很少研究气候变化对海洋物种中幼虫物候的影响。物候变化可能导致消费者与猎物之间不匹配，从而影响个体的生长和生存，并最终影响人口统计学。我们根据1982-2012年间的浮游生物收集资料，调查了圣劳伦斯湾南部（加拿大东部）优势蛙属蟹的幼虫的物候和丰富度的时间变化。自1990年代初以来，圣劳伦斯湾就开始变暖，我们的分析显示，雪蟹（Chionoecetes opilio）和蟾蜍蟹（Hyas）的幼虫spp。）在过去30年的研究期内显示出朝着更早的物候趋势发展的显着趋势。物候变化似乎是气候变暖对孵化时间和幼体发育速度的影响的结果。蟹类对气候变暖的反应不同，可能是由于耐热性的差异。雪蟹不利于变暖，雪蟹是本研究中最冷的适应性最强的类群。当海冰退缩发生在一年中的第110天之前且海表温度高于8.5°C时，雪蟹幼虫的丰度较低。另一方面，喜欢较高温度的石蟹幼虫数量（Cancer irroratus）与地表温度呈正相关。