1. The Strait of Gibraltar is an important habitat for cetaceans due to its high marine productivity. However, it is also the second most navigated channel in the world, subjecting cetaceans to a high level of vessel traffic, including an established whale‐watching fleet. Both maritime traffic and whale‐watching activities have been shown to impact the behaviour of cetaceans, but little is known about their impact on the demography and dynamics of cetacean populations.
2. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impacts of both ferry traffic and whale‐watching vessels on the apparent survival probability of a bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population that occurs in the Strait.
3. A Bayesian hierarchical mark–recapture modelling approach was applied to 8 years of photo‐identification data (2002–2009). Apparent annual survival probability was negatively correlated with ferry traffic, which explained >70% of temporal variation in survival, in contrast to whale‐watching, the effect of which was almost negligible. Despite these results, other natural and human‐related factors are likely to drive apparent survival in the study area.
4. Abundance increased between 2002 and 2005, and then decreased between 2006 and 2009, while local per‐capita recruitment decreased from 2004 until the end of the study period. These shifts correlated temporally with the construction of a large harbour on the Moroccan coast, which increased maritime traffic significantly, including a 40% increase in ferry traffic that regularly transited the Strait.
5. These results highlight the need to better understand the impact of maritime traffic on the demography of the dolphin population in the Strait, in order to implement evidence‐based conservation regulations in a region of high cetacean occurrence.

中文翻译：

---

海上交通和赏鲸对直布罗陀海峡宽吻海豚表观生存的影响

1. 直布罗陀海峡因其高海洋生产力而成为鲸类重要的栖息地。但是，它也是世界上第二大通航的渠道，使鲸类受到大量船只的通行，包括建立了观鲸船队。海上交通和观鲸活动均已显示出对鲸类动物行为的影响，但对其对鲸类人口统计和动态的影响知之甚少。
2. 这项研究的目的是评估渡轮交通和观鲸船对海峡宽吻海豚（Tursiops truncatus）种群表观存活概率的影响。
3. 贝叶斯分级标记-捕获建模方法已应用于8年的照片识别数据（2002-2009年）。表观年生存概率与渡轮流量呈负相关，这解释了生存时间变化的> 70％，而观鲸则几乎可以忽略不计。尽管获得了这些结果，其他自然和与人类相关的因素仍可能推动研究区域的明显生存。
4. 在2002年至2005年期间，丰度增加，而在2006年至2009年之间，丰度下降，而从2004年到研究期末，当地人均招聘量下降。这些变化与摩洛哥沿海大型港口的建设在时间上相关，后者大大增加了海上交通量，其中包括定期穿越海峡的渡轮交通量增加了40％。
5. 这些结果表明，有必要更好地了解海上交通对海峡海豚种群的人口统计学的影响，以便在鲸类高发地区实施基于证据的保护规定。