Translocations are an increasing feature of threatened species conservation plans, but the impact of removal of individuals on the source population is seldom studied. Using computational Population Dynamics P System models and the Pyrenean Bearded Vulture population as a case study we looked at: the effect on the source population of alternative strategies for removal of individual birds for use in reintroduction projects; and the trade‐offs between the various management options. According to our models (over a 30 year prediction horizon) the removal of one clutch, juvenile or non‐territorial adult each year over an 11 year period, results in an annual loss of 1.57, 3.71 and 0.97 territories, respectively. We forecast the impact of a plausible removal scenario for the Pyrenees source population (the removal of five clutches and five non‐territorial adults each year over 11 years), leading to a predicted loss of 16 breeding territories. Nevertheless, changes in demographic parameters, mainly in productivity and adult survival, could substantially affect these predicted results. With the current demographic parameters, the removal scenarios that were estimated to not affect population size after 30 years (95% CI) are limited to: (1) the removal of five clutches and five non‐territorial adults during a single year; (2) the annual removal of five non‐territorial adults during a 6 year period; and (3) the annual removal of five clutches during a 6 year period. Our results suggest that removals from the Pyrenean Bearded Vulture source population should be performed with caution due to uncertainties arising from stochastic changes in survival and productivity.

中文翻译：

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在清除场景中优先考虑重新引入濒危物种：胡须秃simulation模拟模型的见解

易位是受威胁物种保护计划的一个日益重要的特征，但是很少研究迁离个体对源种群的影响。我们使用计算的种群动力学P系统模型和比利牛斯山有胡子秃鹰种群作为案例研究，研究了：去除个体鸟类用于再引入项目的替代策略对源种群的影响；以及各种管理选项之间的权衡。根据我们的模型（在30年的预测范围内），在11年内每年移除一名离婚，少年或非领地成人，分别导致每年损失1.57、3.71和0.97个领地。我们预测了合理的清除方案对比利牛斯血统种群的影响（在11年中每年清除5个five鱼和5个非领土成年动物），预计将导致16个繁殖地区的损失。但是，人口统计学参数的变化（主要是生产力和成年生存率）可能会大大影响这些预测结果。根据当前的人口统计参数，估计在30年后不会影响人口规模（95％CI）的搬迁方案仅限于：（1）在一年内搬迁5个手抓包和5个非领土成年人；（2）在6年内每年撤离5名非领土成年人；（3）在6年内每年拆除5个离合器。