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Reduced avian body condition due to global warming has little reproductive or population consequences
Oikos ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-07 , DOI: 10.1111/oik.06802
Nina M. McLean 1 , Henk P. van der Jeugd 2, 3 , Chris A. M. van Turnhout 4, 5 , Jonathan S. Lefcheck 6 , Martijn van de Pol 1, 2
Affiliation  

Climate change has strong effects on traits such as phenology and physiology. Studies typically assume that climate‐induced trait changes will have consequences for population dynamics, but explicit tests are rare. Body condition reflects energy storage and may directly affect how much can be invested in reproduction and survival. However, the causal pathway by which decreased body condition impacts population dynamics has never been quantified across multiple populations and species. Therefore, we lack a general understanding of the consequences of changes in condition for variables more relevant for conservation, such as population size. Using structural equation modeling, we investigate how temperature‐induced changes in body condition affect reproduction, and the subsequent impact on population growth rates of 19 bird species across 80 Dutch sites over a 21‐year period. Warmer temperatures were associated with decreased body condition, which led to both decreased and increased reproduction at different sites, cancelling out any overall effect. The indirect effect of temperature on population growth (via body condition and reproduction) only explained within‐species variation in the total effects of temperature on population growth. Instead, the direct effect of temperature on population growth (unrelated to condition and reproduction) was the most important pathway underlying the total effects of temperature on population growth, suggesting that unknown variables are mediating this effect. About half of the species are expected to increase under global warming, but this variation was not associated with any species characteristic. Overall, body condition responses to global warming are common, but their consequences on reproduction and subsequently population growth contribute relatively little to the total temperature impacts on population dynamics. Given that warming temperatures have strong effects on population dynamics, understanding the pathways via which temperature impacts population dynamics will be crucial for our ability to predict climate change effects in the future and improve conservation efforts.

中文翻译:

全球变暖导致禽类身体状况降低,几乎不会对生殖或人口造成影响

气候变化对物候和生理等特征具有强烈影响。研究通常假设气候导致的性状变化将对种群动态产生影响,但是很少进行明确的测试。身体状况反映了能量存储,并可能直接影响在生殖和生存方面的投入。然而,减少身体状况影响种群动态的因果途径从未在多个种群和物种中得到量化。因此,我们对条件变化对与保护更为相关的变量(例如种群数量)的后果缺乏普遍的了解。利用结构方程模型,我们研究了温度诱发的身体状况变化如何影响生殖,以及随后21年对荷兰80个站点中19种鸟类的种群增长率的影响。温暖的温度与身体状况的下降有关,这导致在不同部位的繁殖减少和增加,从而抵消了总体影响。温度对人口增长的间接影响(通过身体状况和繁殖)仅解释了温度对人口增长总影响的种内变化。相反,温度对人口增长的直接影响(与条件和繁殖无关)是温度对人口增长的总体影响的最重要途径,这表明未知变量正在介导这种影响。在全球变暖的情况下,预计约有一半的物种会增加,但是这种变化与任何物种特征都不相关。总体而言,人体状况对全球变暖的反应很普遍,但它们对繁殖和随后人口增长的影响对总温度对人口动态的影响贡献很小。考虑到气温升高对种群动态的影响很大,因此了解温度影响种群动态的途径对于我们预测未来气候变化影响和改善保护工作的能力至关重要。
更新日期:2020-02-07
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