Macroclimatic niches are indirect and potentially inadequate predictors of the realized environmental conditions that many species experience. Consequently, analyses of niche evolution based on macroclimatic data alone may incompletely represent the evolutionary dynamics of species niches. Yet, understanding how an organisms’ climatic (Grinnellian) niche responds to changing macroclimatic conditions is of vital importance for predicting their potential response to global change. In this study, we integrate microclimatic and macroclimatic data across 26 species of plethodontid salamanders to portray the relationship between microclimatic niche evolution in response to changing macroclimate. We demonstrate stronger phylogenetic signal in microclimatic niche variables than at the macroclimatic scale. Even so, we find that the microclimatic niche tracks climatic changes at the macroscale, but with a phylogenetic lag at million‐year timescales. We hypothesize that behavioral tracking of the microclimatic niche over space and phenology generates the lag: salamanders preferentially select microclimates similar to their ancestral conditions rather than adapting with changes in physiology. We demonstrate that macroclimatic variables are weak predictors of niche evolution and that incorporating spatial scale into analyses of niche evolution is critical for predicting responses to climate change.

中文翻译：

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宏观到微观气候数据之间的缩放揭示了plethodontid 蝾螈生态位进化的强烈系统发育惰性

大气候生态位是许多物种所经历的已实现环境条件的间接且可能不充分的预测因子。因此，仅基于大气候数据对生态位进化的分析可能不完全代表物种生态位的进化动态。然而，了解生物体的气候（格林内尔）生态位如何响应不断变化的大气候条件对于预测它们对全球变化的潜在响应至关重要。在这项研究中，我们整合了 26 种 plethodontid 蝾螈的小气候和大气候数据，以描绘响应大气候变化的小气候生态位演变之间的关系。我们在小气候生态位变量中表现出比在大气候尺度上更强的系统发育信号。尽管如此，我们发现小气候生态位在宏观尺度上跟踪气候变化，但在百万年时间尺度上存在系统发育滞后。我们假设在空间和物候上对小气候生态位的行为跟踪会产生滞后：蝾螈优先选择与其祖先条件相似的小气候，而不是适应生理学的变化。我们证明大气候变量是生态位演化的弱预测因子，将空间尺度纳入生态位演化分析对于预测对气候变化的响应至关重要。蝾螈优先选择与其祖先条件相似的小气候，而不是适应生理的变化。我们证明宏观气候变量是生态位演化的弱预测因子，将空间尺度纳入生态位演化分析对于预测对气候变化的响应至关重要。蝾螈优先选择与其祖先条件相似的小气候，而不是适应生理的变化。我们证明大气候变量是生态位演化的弱预测因子，将空间尺度纳入生态位演化分析对于预测对气候变化的响应至关重要。