AIM: Forested regions are of global importance for a multitude of ecosystem functions and services and are critical for biodiversity. Anthropogenic climate‐change compounds negative effects of land‐use change on forest persistence and forest‐dependent biodiversity. Habitat loss and climate change have an additive effect and drive species’ extinctions in similar ways, resulting in a homogenization of biodiversity. Connectivity is key in conservation planning for mitigating climate change effects and facilitating species’ abilities to disperse throughout remnant habitat and track their climate niches. We used three forest‐specialized and habitat‐specific bird species as focal species to understand avian connectivity and conservation of each of South Africa's three threatened forest classes, as each species is range‐restricted to its respective forest type. LOCATION: South Africa. METHODS: We created ensemble models of species’ distributions and combined core home‐ and breeding‐range patches with a hybrid of least‐cost pathways and ecological circuit theory linkages to assess the success of corridors in facilitating connectivity of each of the three forest types. We then predicted the likelihood of niche persistence for each species under future climate‐change scenarios, and the efficacy of our connectivity modelling to facilitate range expansion or climate‐niche tracking. RESULTS: The projected habitat loss under climate‐change scenarios impacted core‐habitat patch distribution, size and connectivity, exacerbated habitat fragmentation and increased resistance and the severity of pinch points and barriers along dispersal corridors. Forest systems and associated focal species projected to experience the highest levels of habitat loss/contraction occurred at mid‐ to high elevations. Climate‐change resilience across ecosystems, and persistence of species therein, was dependent on connectivity, facilitating species’ ability to track specific climate niches. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Climate‐change resilience of ecosystems, and persistence of biodiversity therein, is most likely to be a product of high functional biodiversity, connectedness and the ability of species to track specific climate niches.

中文翻译：

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鸟类专家的预测分布：未来气候下保护濒危森林的框架

目标：森林地区对众多生态系统功能和服务具有全球重要性，对生物多样性至关重要。人为气候变化加剧了土地利用变化对森林持久性和依赖森林的生物多样性的负面影响。栖息地丧失和气候变化具有累加效应，并以类似的方式推动物种灭绝，导致生物多样性同质化。连通性是保护规划的关键，以减轻气候变化的影响，促进物种在整个残余栖息地中的分散和追踪其气候生态位的能力。我们使用三种森林专业和栖息地特定的鸟类作为焦点物种来了解南非三个受威胁森林类别中每一个的鸟类连通性和保护，因为每个物种的范围仅限于其各自的森林类型。地点：南非。方法：我们创建了物种分布的集合模型，并将核心栖息地和繁殖地斑块与最低成本路径和生态回路理论联系相结合，以评估走廊在促进三种森林类型中的每一种的连通性方面的成功。然后，我们预测了未来气候变化情景下每个物种的生态位持久性的可能性，以及我们的连通性模型在促进范围扩展或气候生态位跟踪方面的功效。结果：气候变化情景下预计的栖息地丧失影响了核心栖息地斑块分布、大小和连通性，加剧了栖息地破碎化和阻力增加，以及扩散走廊沿线夹点和障碍的严重程度。预计将在中高海拔地区经历最高水平的栖息地丧失/收缩的森林系统和相关焦点物种。整个生态系统的气候变化恢复力以及其中物种的持久性取决于连通性，从而促进物种追踪特定气候生态位的能力。主要结论：生态系统的气候变化适应能力以及其中生物多样性的持久性，最有可能是高功能生物多样性、连通性和物种追踪特定气候生态位能力的产物。促进物种追踪特定气候生态位的能力。主要结论：生态系统的气候变化适应能力以及其中生物多样性的持久性，最有可能是高功能生物多样性、连通性和物种追踪特定气候生态位能力的产物。促进物种追踪特定气候生态位的能力。主要结论：生态系统的气候变化适应能力以及其中生物多样性的持久性，最有可能是高功能生物多样性、连通性和物种追踪特定气候生态位能力的产物。