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Expect evolution, not revolution: Despite the hype, artificial intelligence will take years to significantly boost economic productivity
IEEE Spectrum ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-01 , DOI: 10.1109/mspec.2020.9014457
Jeffrey Funk

This episode encouraged me to look more deeply into the economic promise of AI and the rosy projections made by champions of this technology within the financial sector. This investigation was just the latest twist on a long-standing interest of mine. In the early 1980s, I wrote a doctoral dissertation on the economics of robotics and AI, and throughout my career as a professor and technology consultant I have followed the economic projections for AI, including detailed assessments by consulting organizations such as Accenture, PricewaterhouseCoopers International (PwC), and McKinsey & Co. Are other kinds of AI startups having a greater positive effect on the economy? Tech sector analyst CB Insights reports that overall venture capital funding in the United States was $115 billion in 2018, of which $9.3 billion went to AI startups. While that's just 8 percent of the total, it's still a lot of money, indicating that there are many U.S. startups working on AI (although some overstate the role of AI in their business plans to acquire funding).

中文翻译:

期待进化,而不是革命:尽管大肆宣传,人工智能仍需要数年时间才能显着提高经济生产力

这一集鼓励我更深入地研究人工智能的经济前景以及金融领域这项技术的拥护者所做的乐观预测。这项调查只是对我长期以来的兴趣的最新转折。在 1980 年代初期,我撰写了一篇关于机器人和人工智能经济学的博士论文,在我作为教授和技术顾问的整个职业生涯中,我一直关注人工智能的经济预测,包括埃森哲、普华永道国际 (PricewaterhouseCoopers International) 等咨询机构的详细评估。普华永道)和麦肯锡公司。其他类型的人工智能初创公司是否对经济产生更大的积极影响?科技行业分析师 CB Insights 报告称,2018 年美国的风险投资总额为 1150 亿美元,其中 93 亿美元流向了人工智能初创公司。
更新日期:2020-03-01
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