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Longitudinal analysis of activity generation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area
Transportation ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s11116-020-10089-w
Gozde Ozonder , Eric J. Miller

This paper presents a longitudinal analysis of activity generation behaviour in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) between 1996 and 2016 for various activity types: work, school, shopping, other. The analyses are conducted using the data from the five most recent Transportation Tomorrow Surveys. For work and school purposes, the population is divided into sub-categories considering occupational sectors and educational levels respectively. Further subdivision is made by treating first work/school activity of the day and subsequent work/school activities as distinct activity types. Considerable stability over time in the majority of the model parameters is found in all cases, indicating that both work/school and non-work/school activity episode generation in the GTHA has been very stable over the 20-year period analyzed. Year-specific models and joint models, within which the data are pooled across the years, return very similar results implying that robust joint models that exploit the full time-series of survey data available can be constructed. While first-trips to work and post-secondary schools in the day can be parametrically modelled with reasonable fits, second/subsequent work/school activities and non-work/school activities display considerable randomness in occurrence. Elementary and secondary school trips generally need only be modelled using average trip rates across the student population: parametric, utility-based models provide very little additional explanatory power. In addition, investigation of survey design biases shows that there is no significant survey design effect on activity/trip generation for the first work/school-related activities, however, the models reveal significant biases when the subsequent work/school-related activities and non-work/school activities are analyzed.

中文翻译:

大多伦多和汉密尔顿地区活动生成的纵向分析

本文对 1996 年至 2016 年间大多伦多和汉密尔顿地区 (GTHA) 的各种活动类型的活动生成行为进行了纵向分析:工作、学校、购物、其他。这些分析是使用最近五次交通明日调查的数据进行的。出于工作和学校的目的,人口被分为分别考虑职业部门和教育水平的子类别。通过将当天的第一个工作/学校活动和随后的工作/学校活动视为不同的活动类型来进行进一步细分。在所有情况下,大多数模型参数随时间的推移都具有相当大的稳定性,这表明 GTHA 中工作/学校和非工作/学校活动事件的生成在分析的 20 年期间非常稳定。特定年份的模型和联合模型(其中的数据跨年份汇集)返回非常相似的结果,这意味着可以构建利用可用调查数据的完整时间序列的稳健联合模型。虽然白天的第一次上班和中学后学校可以通过合理的拟合参数建模,但第二次/后续工作/学校活动和非工作/学校活动在发生时表现出相当大的随机性。小学和中学的旅行通常只需要使用学生群体的平均旅行率来建模:参数化的、基于效用的模型几乎没有提供额外的解释力。此外,调查设计偏差的调查表明,对于第一次与工作/学校相关的活动,调查设计对活动/旅行的产生没有显着影响,
更新日期:2020-02-24
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