Spodoptera frugiperda is a serious agricultural pest native to tropical and subtropical areas of the Americas. It has a broad host suitability range, disperses rapidly, and has now invaded nearly 100 countries around the world by quickly establishing in the novel ecologies. Based on the native occurrence records and environmental variables, we predicted the potential geographic distribution of S. frugiperda in Central Asia using the MaxEnt model and the ArcGIS. Irrigation is considered to be the main factor for the maize crop production in the Central Asia; therefore, we sought to map the potential spread of S. frugiperda using two modeling approaches together with adjusted rainfall indices and environmental data from this region. The results showed that both approaches (MCP and Obs) could predict the potential distribution of S. frugiperda. The Observation points (Obs) approach gave predicted more conservative projections compared with the Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP) approach. Areas of potential distribution that were consistently identified by the two modeling approaches included Western Afghanistan, Southern Kazakhstan and Southern Turkmenistan. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve test presented herein provided reliable evidence that the MaxEnt model has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the invasion of S. frugiperda in Central Asia.

中文翻译：

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中亚斜纹夜蛾（Spodoptera frugiperda）（鳞翅目：夜蛾科）的作图潜力分布

Spodoptera frugiperda是一种严重的农业害虫，原产于美洲的热带和亚热带地区。它具有广泛的宿主适应性范围，并且迅速传播，并且通过迅速建立新颖的生态系统，现已入侵了全球近100个国家。基于本地发生的记录和环境变量，我们使用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS预测了中亚沙棘（S. frugiperda）的潜在地理分布。灌溉被认为是中亚玉米作物生产的主要因素。因此，我们试图绘制S. frugiperda的潜在扩散使用两种建模方法以及调整后的降雨指数和该地区的环境数据。结果表明，两种方法（MCP和Obs）都可以预测沙门氏菌的潜在分布。与最小凸多边形（MCP）方法相比，观察点（Obs）方法给出的预测更保守。两种建模方法一致确定的潜在分布区域包括阿富汗西部，哈萨克斯坦南部和土库曼斯坦南部。受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线测试呈现的本文所提供的可靠的证据表明，最大墒模型对预测的侵袭一个高精确度的S.frugiperda中亚。