A major concern in conservation biology today is the loss of genetic diversity in structured populations, which is often a consequence of habitat contraction and restricted gene flow over time. These dynamic biological processes require monitoring with temporal environmental and landscape genetic data. We compared the spatial genetic variation of a relict, umbrella species, the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus), in two different demographic periods, as represented by older museum specimens (1960–1990) and recent non-invasive samples (2011–2015) collected from the Carpathian Mountains, where habitat connectivity has dramatically decreased in the past decade. Using a combination of species distribution modelling and spatial genetic inference, we analysed how climatic and environmental constraints shaped population structures of the species. Environmental and climate niche models confirmed that relict Carpathian capercaillie populations are temperature sensitive, and they occur in a narrow range of mountain forest habitats at the highest altitudes. We found that the environmental and climatic constraints led to genetically isolated populations, but we also detected clusters that did not match relatively interrupted areas of niche habitats. We observed a similar disruption of gene flow in both periods; however, a stronger signal of genetic structuring in recent samples indicated that the processes negatively affecting connectivity are ongoing. The effective population size of the Carpathian population has declined in recent years, but it has been low for at least the last five decades in the Western Carpathians. This study demonstrates the importance of temporal ecological and genetic data as an effective warning tool for the conservation and management of wildlife species.

当今保护生物学的一个主要问题是结构化种群中遗传多样性的丧失，这通常是栖息地收缩和随时间推移基因流动受限的结果。这些动态的生物过程需要使用时态环境和景观遗传数据进行监控。我们比较了一个遗物，雨伞物种，Capercaillie（Tetrao urogallus）在两个不同的人口统计时期内，以较旧的博物馆标本（1960–1990）和最近从喀尔巴阡山采集的近期非侵入性样本（2011–2015）为代表，过去十年间栖息地的连通性急剧下降。结合物种分布模型和空间遗传推论，我们分析了气候和环境限制如何塑造物种的种群结构。环境和气候生态位模型证实，喀尔巴阡山脉遗迹种群对温度敏感，它们出现在最高海拔的狭窄山林生境中。我们发现环境和气候限制导致了遗传上孤立的种群，但是我们还发现了与相对不连续的利基生境区域不匹配的簇。我们在两个时期都观察到了类似的基因流动中断。但是，在最近的样本中，较强的遗传结构信号表明，对连通性产生负面影响的过程正在进行中。近年来，喀尔巴阡人口的有效人口规模有所减少，但至少在最近五个世纪以来一直处于较低水平。这项研究证明了时间生态和遗传数据作为保护和管理野生生物物种的有效预警工具的重要性。但至少在过去的五年里，西喀尔巴阡山脉的水位一直很低。这项研究证明了时间生态和遗传数据作为保护和管理野生生物物种的有效预警工具的重要性。但至少在过去的五年里，西喀尔巴阡山脉的水位一直很低。这项研究证明了时间生态和遗传数据作为保护和管理野生生物物种的有效预警工具的重要性。