Relationships of larger scale meteorological predictors with ground-level daily maximum ozone (O 3max ) and daily maximum air temperature (T max ) for stations in Bavaria were analysed. O 3max and T max as well as threshold exceedances of these variables were assessed under the constraints of ongoing climate change until the end of the twenty-first century. Under RCP8.5 scenario conditions, a substantial increase of T max in the months from April to September arose, with a mean value of 5 K in the period 2081–2100 compared with the historical period 1986–2005. Statistical downscaling projections pointed to a mean O 3max rise of 17 μg/m 3 . The frequency of threshold exceedances showed also large changes. Hot days may occur in the future at about 30% of all days. Exceedances of O 3max > 100 μg/m 3 were projected to increase to about 40% of all days at urban traffic sites and up to about 70% in the rural regional background. Days with O 3max > 120 μg/m 3 occurred still at about 20% of all days at urban traffic sites and at about 45% in rural regional background locations. With respect to combined T max > 30 °C and O 3max > 100 μg/m 3 events in the future, an occurrence of such events at about 27–29% of all days in the summer months from April to September was assessed. The increases were mainly associated with the strong temperature rise until the end of the century. In summary, the projected T max and O 3max changes point to a considerable increased health burden in Bavaria until the end of the century, resulting from strong changes of both variables and their associated individual and combined impact on human health.

中文翻译：

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以德国南部巴伐利亚为例，未来气候变化下与健康相关的地面臭氧和温度事件

分析了巴伐利亚各站的大尺度气象预报器与地面每日最大臭氧（O 3max ）和每日最高气温（T max ）的关系。O 3max 和T max 以及这些变量的阈值超出在持续的气候变化的限制下进行评估，直到二十一世纪末。在RCP8.5情景条件下，4-9月的T max 出现了大幅增加，与历史时期1986-2005相比，2081-2100期间的平均值为5 K。统计降尺度预测表明平均 O 3max 上升为 17 μg/m 3 。超过阈值的频率也显示出很大的变化。未来可能会出现热天，约占所有天数的 30%。超过 O 3max > 100 μg/m 3 预计将在城市交通站点的所有天数中增加到约 40%，在农村地区增加到约 70%。O 3max > 120 μg/m 3 的天数仍然发生在城市交通站点所有天数的大约 20% 和农村区域背景位置的大约 45%。对于未来的组合 T max > 30 °C 和 O 3max > 100 μg/m 3 事件，评估了此类事件发生在 4 月至 9 月夏季月份所有天数的约 27-29%。这些增加主要与直到本世纪末的强烈气温上升有关。总之，预计的 T max 和 O 3max 变化表明巴伐利亚州直到本世纪末的健康负担显着增加，这是由于这两个变量及其相关个体的强烈变化以及对人类健康的综合影响造成的。