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Impact of regional versus local resolution air quality modeling on particulate matter exposure health impact assessment
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health ( IF 5.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-07 , DOI: 10.1007/s11869-019-00786-6
Fatema Parvez , Kristina Wagstrom

As much of the population lives in close proximity to high-traffic roads, there is the potential for health impact assessments based on regional air quality modeling to underpredict health impacts. We compare the estimated health impacts from fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) using local (0.04 × 0.04 km upscaled to census block group resolution) compared to regional (12 × 12 km resolution) modeled concentrations for three locations in Connecticut: Hartford, New Haven, and Willimantic. We use concentration estimates from the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) regional model and a hybrid model combining CAMx with a near road model (HYCAMR) in the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program—Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) to calculate the difference in estimated human health impacts using different resolution air quality estimates from PM 2.5 exposure including mortality, emergency room visits, hospitalizations, and asthma exacerbation. This provides an estimate of the potential underprediction of health impacts resulting from not accounting for the sharp concentration gradients in near road environments in urban areas. The fine-scale estimates capture the elevated concentrations near the roadways leading to increased estimates of overall mortality and morbidity in the population. We find an increase in the estimated likelihood of emergency department visits and mortality in the urban core. We also compare the impact of model resolution on the health impact estimates for different demographic groups. Of the locations investigated, we see the largest differences between demographic groups in Willimantic, CT. Our results indicate that using regional air pollutant concentrations may lead to an underprediction of human health impacts from air pollution exposure.

中文翻译:

区域与本地分辨率空气质量模型对颗粒物暴露健康影响评估的影响

由于大部分人口居住在交通繁忙的道路附近,因此基于区域空气质量模型的健康影响评估有可能低估健康影响。我们使用本地(0.04 × 0.04 公里放大到人口普查区块组分辨率)与区域(12 × 12 公里分辨率)模拟浓度比较了细颗粒物 (PM 2.5 ) 对康涅狄格州三个地点的估计健康影响:哈特福德、纽黑文, 和 Willimantic。我们使用来自环境效益绘图和分析计划 - 社区版 (BenMAP-CE) 中的综合空气质量模型与扩展 (CAMx) 区域模型和结合 CAMx 与近路模型 (HYCAMR) 的混合模型的浓度估计使用来自 PM 2.5 暴露的不同分辨率空气质量估计值,包括死亡率、急诊室就诊、住院治疗和哮喘恶化,估计人类健康影响的差异。这提供了对由于未考虑城市地区附近道路环境中的急剧浓度梯度而导致的健康影响的潜在低估的估计。精细尺度估计捕获了道路附近的浓度升高,导致对人口总体死亡率和发病率的估计增加。我们发现城市核心地区急诊就诊和死亡率的估计可能性有所增加。我们还比较了模型分辨率对不同人口群体的健康影响估计的影响。在调查的地点中,我们看到康涅狄格州威利曼蒂克的人口群体之间的差异最大。我们的结果表明,使用区域空气污染物浓度可能会导致对空气污染暴露对人类健康的影响的低估。
更新日期:2020-02-07
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