The storied Yellowstone cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri; YCT) population of Yellowstone Lake, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA, has shown a profound and mostly continuous decline since the 1970s despite pristine habitat and vanishing angler harvests. An age-structured Leslie model that had a broad climate index as its only driver (regulating age-0 YCT survival) was Bayesian-fitted to data for a key YCT spawning stock from 1977 to 1992, arguably before predation from an introduced lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) population (1994 discovery) measurably affected YCT population dynamics. The middle 50% of model fits encompassed 12 of 14 observed spawning populations and nominally excluded the others. Forecasting to 2007 (the final empirical data year) showed the new climate regime largely explained declining YCT numbers, but a growing predation effect became evident soon after lake trout discovery and quickly became the major YCT population driver. The climate effect may have involved the fatal blockage of out-emigrating YCT fry by natural alluvial deposits at spawning tributary mouths in warm, dry years. The previously reported Yellowstone Lake ecosystem shift suggested by the YCT population decline actually began with the 1977 North Pacific Basin climate shift and was only later enhanced by lake trout predation. This study showed identifying and accounting for the overarching population drivers is important to structuring statistical models intended to detect and assess the effects of new and emerging population impacts across historic data sets. Management actions intended to protect these YCT must consider climate effects and probable future climates.

中文翻译：

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新的气候制度开始并进一步影响了历史悠久的黄石湖尖嘴鳟鱼种群的减少，这通常完全归因于外来湖鳟的捕食

美国黄石国家公园，怀俄明州，黄石湖的臭名昭著的黄石cut鱼（Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri； YCT）种群自1970年代以来就表现出深刻且大部分持续的下降，尽管原始生境和垂钓者的收成减少。贝叶斯拟合了一个年龄结构化的莱斯利模型，该模型具有广泛的气候指数作为唯一的驱动因素（调节0岁YCT的生存），适用于1977年至1992年YCT关键产卵种群数据的贝叶斯拟合（可以说是在引入的鳟鱼捕食之前）（沙柳人口（1994年发现）显着影响了YCT人口动态。模型拟合的中间50％包括观察到的14个产卵种群中的12个，名义上排除了其他种群。预测到2007年（最后的经验数据年份）表明，新的气候体制在很大程度上解释了YCT数量的下降，但是在发现湖鳟之后不久，捕食效应的增长就变得明显，并迅速成为YCT人口的主要驱动力。气候影响可能涉及在温暖干燥的年份，产卵支流口的天然冲积物对YCT鱼苗迁徙的致命阻碍。YCT人口减少所暗示的先前报道的黄石湖生态系统转移实际上始于1977年北太平洋盆地的气候转移，后来才因鳟鱼的捕食而加剧。这项研究表明，识别和核算总体人口驱动因素对于构建旨在检测和评估跨历史数据集的新兴人口影响的统计模型至关重要。旨在保护这些YCT的管理措施必须考虑气候影响和未来可能的气候。