Abstract

In recent years, sudden water pollution accidents in China’s rivers have become more frequent, resulting in considerable effects on environmental safety. Therefore, it is necessary to simulate and predict pollution accidents. Simulation and prediction provide strong support for emergency disposal and disaster reduction. This paper describes a new two-dimensional water quantity and the quality model that incorporates a digital elevation model into the geographic information system. The model is used to simulate sudden water pollution accidents in the main stream of the Yangtze River and Jialing River in the Chongqing section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The sectional velocity distribution and concentration change of total phosphorus are then analyzed under four hydrological situations. The results show that the proposed model accurately simulates and predicts the concentration change and migration process of total phosphorus under sudden water pollution accidents. The speed of migration and diffusion of pollutants is found to be greatest in the flood season, followed by the water storage period, drawdown season, and dry season, in that order. The selection of an appropriate water scheduling scheme can reduce the peak concentration of river pollutants. This study enables the impact of pollutants on the ecological environment of river water to be alleviated, and provides a scientific basis for the emergency response to sudden water pollution accidents in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.