OBJECTIVES Literature assessing the effects of policies aimed at reducing traffic-related air pollution is scarce. The aims of this study were to evaluate the expected impacts, in terms of air quality and health effects, of various hypothetical low-emission zone (LEZ) scenarios in Greater Paris for a planned intervention in 2018/2019 which combine two different perimeters and two levels of vehicles ban, and to assess those impacts according to the socioeconomic status (SES) of the population. METHODS We evaluated the effects of four hypothetical LEZ scenarios on various stages of the full-chain model, more specifically, road traffic modelling (traffic flow, type of vehicles and related number of kilometers driven), emissions, fine scale PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations, related resident population exposure, and health effects. We computed the overall benefits of expected air pollution improvements in terms of preventable deaths and a decrease in new cases of the following three major chronic diseases: ischemic heart diseases in adults, asthma in children and low weight in full-term newborns. RESULTS The most stringent LEZ scenario would lower the maximum level of exposure from 55 μg/m3 to 42 μg/m3 in Paris. In one year, this scenario would help prevent: 340 deaths (-0.6%) representing 114,300 life years gained, 170 low-weight full-term births (-4.9%), 130 new cases of ischemic heart disease (IHD) (-1.8%) and 2930 new cases of asthma (-3.0%) among 9.4 million residents. Residents outside the LEZ would also benefit from this scenario. Results indicated that the intervention could contribute to increasing inequalities. The comparison of scenarios underlined the value of extending the LEZ to include a wider zone (including 80 more municipalities surrounding Paris). This would lead to a more equitable spread of the benefits over the population. CONCLUSION Traffic control policies such as LEZ are difficult to accept for some categories of commuters and economic stakeholders. As of June 2019, the concertation process for the proposed Paris LEZ is still ongoing. This work provides authorities with detailed analyses of the options for this measure as well as information on related implications. It will help decision makers prioritize which preventive measures to introduce.

中文翻译：

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在大巴黎实施各种假设的低排放区情景：评估接触和预期健康益处的细微减少。

目的缺乏旨在减少交通相关空气污染的政策效果评估的文献。这项研究的目的是评估大巴黎各种假设的低排放区（LEZ）情景在空气质量和健康影响方面的预期影响，以计划在2018/2019年进行干预，其中结合了两个不同的周界和两个禁止车辆通行，并根据人口的社会经济地位（SES）评估这些影响。方法我们评估了四种假设的LEZ情景对全链模型各个阶段的影响，更具体地说，是道路交通建模（交通流量，车辆类型和相关行驶公里数），排放，精细尺度PM2.5和NO2浓度，相关居民人口暴露以及健康影响。我们根据可预防的死亡和以下三种主要慢性疾病的新病例减少，计算了预期的空气污染改善的总体收益：成人局部缺血性心脏病，儿童哮喘和足月新生儿体重减轻。结果最严格的LEZ方案将巴黎的最大暴露水平从55μg/ m3降低到42μg/ m3。在一年中，这种情况将有助于预防：340例死亡（-0.6％）代表114,300生命年，170例低体重足月出生（-4.9％），130例新发缺血性心脏病（IHD）（-1.8 ％）和940万居民中的2930例新哮喘（-3.0％）。LEZ以外的居民也将从这种情况中受益。结果表明，干预措施可能加剧不平等现象。对情景的比较强调了将低排放区扩展到更大范围（包括巴黎周边80多个城市）的价值。这将导致惠益在整个人口中的分配更加公平。结论对于某些类型的通勤者和经济利益相关者，像LEZ这样的交通控制政策很难接受。截至2019年6月，拟议的巴黎LEZ的协调程序仍在进行中。这项工作为当局提供了有关该措施选择的详细分析以及有关影响的信息。这将帮助决策者确定采用哪种预防措施的优先级。结论对于某些类型的通勤者和经济利益相关者，像LEZ这样的交通控制政策很难接受。截至2019年6月，拟议的巴黎LEZ的协调程序仍在进行中。这项工作为当局提供了有关该措施选择的详细分析以及有关影响的信息。这将帮助决策者确定采用哪种预防措施的优先级。结论对于某些类型的通勤者和经济利益相关者，像LEZ这样的交通控制政策很难接受。截至2019年6月，拟议的巴黎LEZ的协调程序仍在进行中。这项工作为当局提供了有关该措施选择的详细分析以及有关影响的信息。这将帮助决策者确定采用哪种预防措施的优先级。