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GAP: Forecasting Commit Activity in git Projects
Journal of Systems and Software ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jss.2020.110573
Alexandre Decan , Eleni Constantinou , Tom Mens , Henrique Rocha

Abstract Abandonment of active developers poses a significant risk for many open source software projects. This risk can be reduced by forecasting the future activity of contributors involved in such projects. Focusing on the commit activity of individuals involved in git repositories, this paper proposes a practicable probabilistic forecasting model based on the statistical technique of survival analysis. The model is empirically validated on a wide variety of projects accounting for 7528 git repositories and 5947 active contributors. We found that a model based on the last 20 observed days of commit activity per contributor provides the best concordance. We also found that the predictions provided by the model are generally close to actual observations, with slight underestimations for low probability predictions and slight overestimations for higher probability predictions. This model is implemented as part of an open source tool, called GAP , that predicts future commit activity.

中文翻译:

GAP:预测 git 项目中的提交活动

摘要 放弃活跃的开发人员给许多开源软件项目带来了重大风险。通过预测参与此类项目的贡献者的未来活动,可以降低这种风险。本文针对参与 git 存储库的个人的提交活动,提出了一种基于生存分析统计技术的实用概率预测模型。该模型在包括 7528 个 git 存储库和 5947 个活跃贡献者的各种项目中得到了经验验证。我们发现,基于每个贡献者最近 20 天观察到的提交活动的模型提供了最好的一致性。我们还发现模型提供的预测通常接近实际观察,对低概率预测略有低估,对高概率预测略有高估。该模型是作为开源工具的一部分实现的,称为 GAP,可预测未来的提交活动。
更新日期:2020-07-01
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