Abstract Meeting global food demand and achieving environmental sustainability remain key challenges for the future, particularly given continued population growth, rising incomes, shifting dietary preferences, and global climate change. We examine the ex ante economic and environmental benefits of the adoption of genomic technologies to selectively breed dairy cattle for improved feed efficiency and reduced methane emissions. We use a farm-level representative dynamic multi-year enterprise budgeting stochastic simulation and optimization model to examine the effect of on-farm adoption. First, we find positive financial benefits to producers from a reduction in feed costs and environmental benefits to society from a reduction in methane emissions. Second, we find that the economic and environmental benefits depend on the predictive accuracy of genomic selection. Lower accuracies may lead to negative net financial returns, limiting widespread adoption of the technology. While these results are specific to a feed efficiency trait on a representative dairy farm in Ontario, Canada, they highlight potential benefits and challenges associated with selecting for novel traits using emerging biotechnologies.

中文翻译：

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基因组创新能否在乳制品生产中实现经济和环境双赢？

摘要 满足全球粮食需求和实现环境可持续性仍然是未来的主要挑战，特别是考虑到人口持续增长、收入增加、饮食偏好转变和全球气候变化。我们研究了采用基因组技术选择性繁殖奶牛以提高饲料效率和减少甲烷排放的事前经济和环境效益。我们使用农场级代表性动态多年企业预算随机模拟和优化模型来检查农场采用的效果。首先，我们发现饲料成本降低给生产者带来了积极的经济利益，而甲烷排放的减少给社会带来了环境效益。第二，我们发现经济和环境效益取决于基因组选择的预测准确性。较低的准确性可能会导致负的净财务回报，从而限制该技术的广泛采用。虽然这些结果特定于加拿大安大略省代表性奶牛场的饲料效率性状，但它们强调了与使用新兴生物技术选择新性状相关的潜在好处和挑战。