Global economic models have been increasingly used to project food and agricultural developments for long term-time horizons, but food security aspects have often been limited to food availability projections. In this paper, we propose a broader framework to explore the future of food and nutrition security with a focus on food availability, food access, and a reasonable proxy for food utilisation. This framework is applied to a new set of stakeholder-designed scenarios of alternative future worlds that were developed for the FOODSECURE project and are structured around the two dimensions of inequality and sustainability. The framework is tested with two global models, MAGNET-IMAGE and GLOBIOM, and illustrated through an assessment of the possible trade-offs between food and nutrition security and sustainability in each of the worlds. Our results indicate that more equal worlds improve food security over a wider range of food security indicators and neglecting the sustainability dimension might revert food security gains over time. This paper concludes that there is a need for model-based scenario analysis to assess the complex and multi-dimensional characteristics of global food security.

全球经济模型已被越来越多地用于预测长期的粮食和农业发展，但粮食安全方面往往仅限于粮食供应​​预测。在本文中，我们提出了一个更广泛的框架来探讨粮食和营养安全的未来，重点是粮食的可获得性，粮食的获取以及合理利用粮食的手段。该框架适用于为FOODSECURE项目开发的，由利益相关者设计的一组新的替代未来世界场景，并围绕不平等和可持续性两个维度构建。该框架已通过两个全球模型MAGNET-IMAGE和GLOBIOM进行了测试，并通过评估世界各地粮食与营养安全与可持续性之间的可能取舍进行了说明。我们的结果表明，更平等的世界可以在更大范围的粮食安全指标上改善粮食安全，而忽略可持续性方面可能会随着时间的流逝而恢复粮食安全。本文得出结论，有必要进行基于模型的情景分析，以评估全球粮食安全的复杂和多维特征。