The Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accidents following the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and subsequent tsunami released radioactive materials into the atmosphere and caused significant public health concerns, particularly thyroid cancers in children. However, the lack of measurement data for atmospheric concentrations of 131I has caused persistent and widespread uncertainty. This study estimated the maximum potential thyroid doses of inhaled 131I in the early post-accident phase between March 12 and 23, 2011 by using the hourly measured data of the 137Cs concentrations at 101 suspended particulate matter (SPM) monitoring sites, a new multi-model ensemble (MME) method of simulating 137Cs concentrations using two Atmospheric Transport and Deposition Models (ATDMs), the 131I/137Cs ratio obtained from measurement data analysis, and the internal exposure model. Based on the measurements, the maximum potential thyroid doses were estimated at 3.1-160 mSv at 5 sites in the Fukushima-Hamadori area for 1-year-old children assumed to remain outdoors, whereas they were less than 4.3 mSv at the other sites in the base case of the 131I/137Cs ratio. The spatial distribution of the maximum potential of early inhalation doses was estimated by using the MME and measurements. The inhalation thyroid doses in the evacuation scenarios were compared to the estimates reported by previous studies. The results of the present study were almost congruent with the outcomes of previous investigations except for thyroid doses contributed by highly contaminated plumes on March 12 and 15. The sensitivity analysis for the 131I/137Cs ratio indicated that these plumes carried the potential to significantly increase the thyroid doses of residents.

中文翻译：

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基于大气137Cs和131I / 137Cs观测数据以及大气迁移和沉积模型的多集合，对福岛核事故的131I早期吸入剂量进行了重新评估。

2011年3月11日东北地震后发生的福岛第一核电站事故以及随后的海啸将放射性物质释放到了大气中，并引起了重大的公共健康问题，特别是儿童甲状腺癌。但是，缺乏大气中131I的测量数据导致了持续且广泛的不确定性。这项研究通过使用101个悬浮颗粒物（SPM）监测点的137Cs浓度的每小时测量数据（在2011年3月12日至23日之间）估算了事故后早期吸入的131I的最大潜在甲状腺剂量。使用两种大气传输和沉积模型（ATDM）模拟137Cs浓度的模型集成（MME）方法，从测量数据分析获得131I / 137Cs比率，以及内部曝光模型。根据这些测量，对于假定留在户外的1岁儿童，在福岛-鸟取地区5个地点的最大潜在甲状腺剂量估计为3.1-160 mSv，而在其他地方，他们的最大甲状腺剂量低于4.3 mSv。 131I / 137Cs比的基本情况。早期吸入剂量的最大潜力的空间分布是通过使用MME和测量值进行估算的。将撤离场景中的吸入甲状腺剂量与先前研究报告的估计值进行了比较。除了3月12日和15日受到高度污染的羽流造成的甲状腺剂量外，本研究的结果与先前的研究结果几乎完全一致。