Expanding photovoltaics (PV) is important for reaching Dutch renewable energy and climate targets. In this paper, we assess risks of scaling up PV in the Dutch electricity sector and economy. With a computable general equilibrium model setup to analyse scenarios until 2050, we show that increasing PV shares initially lead to higher costs of electricity supply and thus retail prices. Until 2025, large storage investments will be required, leading to lower consumption possibilities presenting a critical barrier to initiate PV expansion. However, from 2025 onwards PV installation costs are expected to become competitive to wind power, leading to lower costs of electricity supply and electricity retail prices, with positive macroeconomic effects. Overall, we find positive long-term effects of PV expansion on GDP, welfare and employment from 2025 until mid-century. With stakeholders we then investigate system-level obstacles for PV expansion in the Netherlands. A key observation is that inconsistent policy mixes are an obstacle to successful PV implementation.

扩大光伏（PV）对实现荷兰可再生能源和气候目标至关重要。在本文中，我们评估了荷兰电力部门和经济中扩大光伏发电的风险。通过可计算的一般均衡模型设置来分析直到2050年的情景，我们表明，增加的PV份额最初会导致更高的电力供应成本，进而导致零售价格上涨。在2025年之前，将需要大量的存储投资，从而导致降低能耗的可能性，这成为启动PV扩展的关键障碍。但是，从2025年起，预计光伏安装成本将对风电具有竞争力，从而导致电力供应成本和电力零售价格降低，并产生积极的宏观经济影响。总体而言，我们发现光伏扩张对GDP的长期影响是积极的，从2025年到本世纪中叶的福利和就业。然后，我们与利益相关者一起调查在荷兰扩大光伏发电的系统级障碍。一个关键的观察结果是，不一致的政策组合是成功实施PV的障碍。