In The Lancet Global Health, Kaja M Abbas and colleagues present revised estimates of the worldwide impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on prevention of cervical cancer, using the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model. Their updated analysis uses population demography data from the UN World Population Prospects 2019 revision, disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study, and cervical cancer burden from the Global Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence 2018 database.^{,  ,}  The revised estimates suggest that the potential health impact of HPV vaccines is higher than was previously forecast, with health benefits increased to 15–19 cases, 12–14 deaths, and 243–306 disability-adjusted life-years averted per 1000 vaccinated 9-year-old girls, with the upper and lower limits reflecting the estimates for the nonavalent vaccine and bivalent or quadrivalent vaccine, respectively.^,  These increased health benefits are assumed to result in improved cost-effectiveness of the vaccines—ie, the costs per fully immunised girl remain similar, while at the same time more cases are averted. The WHO African region is estimated to benefit the most from HPV vaccination introduction and scale-up. However, this will be a challenge in the present situation of HPV vaccine scarcity. In the context of the report by Abbas and colleagues, three issues warrant further consideration: potential differences between the vaccines, potential reduced vaccination schedules, and prevention of cancers other than cervical cancer.

中文翻译：

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最大化HPV疫苗的潜力。

在《柳叶刀全球健康》杂志中，Kaja M Abbas及其同事使用乳头瘤病毒建模和经济快速接口（PRIME）模型，对人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）疫苗接种对预防宫颈癌的全球影响进行了修订后的估算。他们的最新分析使用了《联合国世界人口展望2019》修订版中的人口人口统计学数据，《 2017年全球疾病负担》研究中的残疾权重以及《 2018年全球癌症发病率，死亡率和患病率》数据库中的子宫颈癌负担。^{，  ，} 修订后的估计值表明，HPV疫苗对健康的潜在影响要比以前预测的要高，健康益处增加到15-19例，死亡12-14例，每1000支9-接种疫苗可避免243-306残疾调整生命年。岁女孩，其上限和下限分别反映了非价疫苗和二价或四价疫苗的估计值。^， 这些增加的健康益处被认为可以提高疫苗的成本效益，即，每个完全免疫女孩的费用保持相似，同时避免了更多病例。据估计，世卫组织非洲区域将从引进HPV疫苗和扩大规模中受益最大。然而，这在HPV疫苗稀缺的现状下将是一个挑战。在阿巴斯及其同事的报告中，需要进一步考虑三个问题：疫苗之间的潜在差异，疫苗接种时间表的潜在减少以及预防子宫颈癌以外的其他癌症。