Abstract Coastal erosion is driven by both a storm's erosion potential and by an area's vulnerability. Therefore, the problem of estimating impacts can be approached in two-step. The first includes an assessment of erosion potential based on readily available storm parameters, while the second combines this information with highly localized parameters, describing vulnerability, to more directly predict local impacts. The work presented in this paper focuses on this first step, where a storm erosion potential climatology is developed by analyzing historical storms and is then utilized to identify historic patterns. Specifically, storms which have impacted the New Jersey coast over the past several decades are reevaluated using the Storm Erosion Index (SEI), developed by Miller and Livermont (2008), which considers the three primary storm-related drivers of coastal erosion (wave height, water level, and storm duration). These storms are assessed at thirteen shoreline segments defined along New Jersey's Atlantic coast from a 34 year-period (1980–2013) when concurrent wave and water level data is available. Approximately 130 unique storms are identified with the top three being the December 1992 nor'easter, the November 2009 Veteran's Day Storm, and Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, each having an estimated return period of greater than 15 years. The resulting climatology is found to exhibit several interesting spatial and temporal trends. Both portions of the state as well as months of the year that have historically experienced more storms and/or higher cumulative SEI (over the 34 years) are identified. While analysis of the climatology has also identified periods of reduced storm activity and those of intensified conditions, future monitoring is suggested to assess whether these patterns are persistent or related to climatic variations with cycles longer than can be captured by the thirty years included in this study.

中文翻译：

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通过美国新泽西州海岸侵蚀潜力的透镜评估风暴

摘要 海岸侵蚀是由风暴的侵蚀潜力和一个地区的脆弱性共同驱动的。因此，估计影响的问题可以分两步处理。第一个包括基于现成的风暴参数对侵蚀潜力的评估，而第二个将这些信息与高度局部化的参数相结合，描述脆弱性，以更直接地预测局部影响。本文中介绍的工作侧重于第一步，通过分析历史风暴来开发风暴侵蚀潜在气候学，然后用于识别历史模式。具体而言，使用 Miller 和 Livermont (2008) 开发的风暴侵蚀指数 (SEI) 重新评估过去几十年影响新泽西海岸的风暴，它考虑了海岸侵蚀的三个主要与风暴相关的驱动因素（波高、水位和风暴持续时间）。这些风暴是在 34 年（1980-2013 年）期间沿新泽西大西洋沿岸定义的 13 个海岸线段进行评估的，当时可获得并发波浪和水位数据。大约有 130 个独特的风暴被确定，前三名分别是 1992 年 12 月的东北风暴、2009 年 11 月的退伍军人节风暴和 2012 年 10 月的飓风桑迪，每场风暴的重现期都超过 15 年。发现由此产生的气候学表现出几个有趣的空间和时间趋势。确定了该州历史上经历过更多风暴和/或更高累积 SEI（超过 34 年）的部分地区以及一年中的几个月。