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Spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation concentration and diversity in Central Asia
Atmospheric Research ( IF 5.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104954
Tao Yang , Qian Li , Xi Chen , Philippe De Maeyer , Xue Yan , Yang Liu , Tianbao Zhao , Lanhai Li

Abstract More extreme precipitation is expected to occur in the arid and wet regions due to climate warming. This intensification will increase the risk of floods, soil erosion, and droughts in the world's dry regions. Exploring the precipitation's irregularity and the daily precipitation concentration in Central Asia (CA) has significant implications for regional agricultural development and ecosystem services. However, the irregularity of precipitation was poorly understood throughout the entire CA due to the sparse meteorological observations. Using the daily Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP-V2.2) from 1979 to 2016 across CA, this study investigated the spatiotemporal variations of the daily precipitation concentration index (CI) and the precipitation diversity and analyzed their attributes and implications. The results demonstrated that the CI was significantly negatively correlated with the precipitation frequency and amount. The distribution of the precipitation frequency diversity (Hfre) and the precipitation amount diversity (Hamount) showed an opposite pattern with the CI, implying that the low Hfre and Hamount values were corresponding to a high precipitation concentration. The high CI values were found in the Tarim Basin and near the Aral Sea, revealing a strong irregularity in precipitation. The decrease regarding the light precipitation frequency or increase in the torrential precipitation frequency generated the increasing precipitation frequency diversity, corresponding to a widespread significant reduction of the CI in CA. The decreased CI and increased precipitation diversity over past decades were likely related to the warming phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The shift from light to extreme precipitation will trigger the risk of flooding and soil erosion and bring about big challenges for water resources management in the arid and semi-arid regions.

中文翻译:

中亚降水浓度和多样性的时空变异性

摘要 由于气候变暖,干旱和潮湿地区预计将出现更多极端降水。这种集约化将增加世界干旱地区发生洪水、水土流失和干旱的风险。探索中亚 (CA) 降水的不规则性和日降水浓度对区域农业发展和生态系统服务具有重要意义。然而,由于气象观测稀少,整个加州对降水的不规则性知之甚少。本研究使用加州 1979 年至 2016 年的每日多源加权集合降水 (MSWEP-V2.2),调查了每日降水浓度指数 (CI) 和降水多样性的时空变化,并分析了它们的属性和影响。结果表明,CI与降水频率和数量呈显着负相关。降水频率多样性(Hfre)和降水量多样性(Hamount)的分布与CI呈相反的分布,表明Hfre和Hamount值低对应高降水浓度。在塔里木盆地和咸海附近发现高 CI 值,表明降水具有很强的不规则性。轻度降水频率的减少或暴雨频率的增加产生了降水频率多样性的增加,对应于 CA 中 CI 的广泛显着减少。过去几十年 CI 的下降和降水多样性的增加可能与大西洋多年代际振荡的变暖阶段有关。由轻度降水向极端降水转变将引发洪水和水土流失风险,给干旱和半干旱地区的水资源管理带来巨大挑战。
更新日期:2020-09-01
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