Abstract The aim of this study is to determine the tsunami potential of the southern Turkish coast through hypothetical earthquake scenarios developed for several critical coastal sites in the region. A well-known tsunami numerical model (MOST) is utilized to calculate the run-up and inundation of the subsequent tsunami waves. The coastal regions selected to realize the aim of the study are Akkuyu and Yesilovacik from Mersin and Yumurtalik from Adana, which are chosen for their industrial and environmental importance. Time series of wave amplitudes at these three sites as well as contour plots presenting maximum wave amplitudes within the computational domain are generated for different earthquake moment magnitudes. Results obtained from the numerical model suggest that while earthquakes having magnitude smaller than 7.5 generate weak oscillations, earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7.5 result in significant waves reaching maximum wave height of a few meters at the selected coastal regions. Given the number and the magnitude scale of tsunamigenic earthquakes occurred in the region in the past, the modeling effort here indicates that hazard induced by tectonic tsunamis should seriously be taken into account by both the central and the local government authorities, who are responsible for pre- and post-disaster action planning. This issue is critical for minimizing the damage of a possible tsunami event. The proposed study is hoped to be used as a basis for future tsunami risk maps to be developed for the region.

中文翻译：

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土耳其南部海岸的潜在海啸灾害

摘要 本研究的目的是通过为该地区几个关键沿海地点开发的假设地震情景来确定土耳其南部海岸的海啸潜力。众所周知的海啸数值模型 (MOST) 用于计算后续海啸波的上升和淹没。为实现研究目标而选择的沿海地区是来自 Mersin 的 Akkuyu 和 Yesilovacik 以及来自 Adana 的 Yumurtalik，它们因其工业和环境重要性而被选中。这三个地点的波幅时间序列以及表示计算域内最大波幅的等值线图是针对不同的地震矩震级生成的。从数值模型获得的结果表明，虽然震级小于 7.5 的地震会产生微弱的振荡，震级大于 7.5 的地震会导致在选定的沿海地区达到几米的最大波高的显着波浪。鉴于该地区过去发生的海啸地震的数量和震级规模，这里的建模工作表明，中央和地方政府都应认真考虑构造海啸引发的危害，他们负责预- 和灾后行动计划。这个问题对于最大限度地减少可能发生的海啸事件造成的损害至关重要。拟议的研究有望用作未来为该地区开发的海啸风险地图的基础。鉴于该地区过去发生的海啸地震的数量和震级规模，这里的建模工作表明，中央和地方政府都应认真考虑构造海啸引发的危害，他们负责预- 和灾后行动计划。这个问题对于最大限度地减少可能发生的海啸事件造成的损害至关重要。拟议的研究有望用作未来为该地区开发的海啸风险地图的基础。鉴于该地区过去发生的海啸地震的数量和震级规模，这里的建模工作表明，中央和地方政府都应认真考虑构造海啸引发的危害，他们负责预- 和灾后行动计划。这个问题对于最大限度地减少可能发生的海啸事件造成的损害至关重要。拟议的研究有望用作未来为该地区开发的海啸风险地图的基础。这个问题对于最大限度地减少可能发生的海啸事件造成的损害至关重要。拟议的研究有望用作未来为该地区开发的海啸风险地图的基础。这个问题对于最大程度地减少可能发生的海啸事件造成的损害至关重要。拟议的研究有望用作未来为该地区开发的海啸风险地图的基础。