Changes in temperature and air pollution affect agricultural productivity, but most relevant research has focused on major annual crops (for example, wheat, maize, soy and rice). In contrast, relatively little is known about the effects of climate change and air quality on perennial crops such as fruits and nuts, which are important to dietary diversity and nutrition, and represent ~38% of California’s agriculture by economic value. Moreover, the adaptive capacity of perennial crops may be limited by their long lifespans and sometimes large establishment costs. Here, on the basis of statistical modelling of historical data and downscaled climate model projections, we jointly assess the impacts of climate and ozone levels on historical and future yields of perennial crops in California. Although the effects of warming to date are not statistically significant for many perennial crops, the yields of most perennials show a significant negative response to ambient ozone, ranging from −2% for strawberries to −22% for table grapes, implying total losses of roughly US$1 billion per year. This suggests that historical improvements in California’s air quality that reduced ozone exposures may have had large, unaccounted co-benefits for the state’s perennial crop yields, and further pollution reduction could create additional gains. Indeed, the co-location of regions with high production and high ozone damage indicates that opportunities to improve crop yields through pollution mitigation are large.

温度和空气污染的变化会影响农业生产率，但是大多数相关研究都集中在主要的一年生作物（例如小麦，玉米，大豆和水稻）上。相比之下，人们对气候变化和空气质量对多年生作物（如水果和坚果）的影响知之甚少，这对饮食多样性和营养很重要，按经济价值计算约占加州农业的38％。此外，多年生作物的适应能力可能受其寿命长和有时高昂的建立成本的限制。在此，根据历史数据的统计模型和缩减的气候模型预测，我们共同评估了气候和臭氧水平对加利福尼亚多年生作物历史和未来产量的影响。尽管迄今为止对许多多年生作物而言，变暖的影响在统计学上并不显着，但大多数多年生植物的产量对环境臭氧表现出显着的负响应，范围从草莓的−2％到鲜食葡萄的−22％，这意味着总损失约为每年10亿美元。这表明，加利福尼亚州空气质量的历史改善，减少了臭氧暴露，可能对该州多年生作物的产量产生了巨大的，无法说明的共同收益，而进一步减少污染可能会带来更多收益。确实，高产和高臭氧破坏区域的共置表明，通过减轻污染来提高农作物产量的机会很大。从草莓的−2％到鲜食葡萄的−22％不等，这意味着每年的总损失约为10亿美元。这表明，加利福尼亚州空气质量的历史改善，减少了臭氧暴露，可能对该州多年生作物的产量产生了巨大的，无法说明的共同收益，而进一步减少污染可能会带来更多收益。确实，高产和高臭氧破坏区域的共置表明，通过减轻污染来提高农作物产量的机会很大。从草莓的−2％到鲜食葡萄的−22％不等，这意味着每年的总损失约为10亿美元。这表明，加利福尼亚州空气质量的历史改善，减少了臭氧的暴露，可能对该州多年生作物的产量产生了巨大的，无法说明的共同利益，而进一步减少污染可能会带来额外的收益。确实，高产和高臭氧破坏区域的共置表明，通过减轻污染来提高农作物产量的机会很大。进一步减少污染可能会带来更多收益。确实，高产和高臭氧破坏区域的共置表明，通过减轻污染来提高农作物产量的机会很大。进一步减少污染可能会带来更多收益。确实，高产和高臭氧破坏区域的共地处分表明通过减轻污染来提高作物产量的机会很大。