To evaluate if United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1, USMLE Step 2 CK, USMLE Step 3, and residency third-year in-service training exam (ITE) scores predict the results of American Board of Internal Medicine Certifying Exam (ABIM-CE). We performed a retrospective review of USMLE Step 1, USMLE Step 2 CK, USMLE Step 3, third-year residency ITE scores and ABIM-CE results of IM residents at our residency program from 2004 through 2017. Statistical analysis was perfrormed using Pearson correlation coefficient, and logistic regression to assess the relationship between USMLE Step 1, USMLE Step 2CK, USMLE Step 3, 3rd year ITE scores and ABIM-CE results. We used Multivariate logistic regression to predict pass or fail results in ABIM-CE based on USMLE and third-year ITE test scores controlling for other covariates. Among 114 Internal Medicine MD residents included in the study, 92% (n = 105) passed the ABIM-CE. The OR of passing ABIM-CE was 2.70 (95% CI = 1.38–5.29), 2.31 (95% CI = 1.33–4.01), and 1.63 (95% CI = 0.81–3.29) with a ten-point increase in USMLE Step 1, USMLE Step 2 CK and USMLE Step 3 scores respectively. The OR of ABIM-CE passing chance was 2.96 (95% CI = 0.95–9.20), with a ten-point increase in the average score of the above three exams. A 5 % increase in ITE percentage raised the likelihood of passing ABIM-CE (OR 2.92, 95% CI 1.15–7.38). All residents who failed ABIM-CE had Step 1 scores < 220. Among 31 residents with Step 2 CK score < 220, 20% (n = 6) failed ABIM. Similarly, 9% of residents with USMLE Step 3 score < 220 failed ABIM-CE; all residents who failed had scored < 220. The probability curve predicted that the chance of passing ABIM- CE was around 80% with USMLE scores greater than 200 and increased to almost 100% with USMLE scores of 250 or more. USMLE Step 1, USMLE Step 2 CK, and third-year ITE scores can predict the chances of passing ABIM-CE. The third-year ITE score has a higher preditive value compared to USMLE Step 1 and USMLE Step 2 scores. USMLE Step 1 scores more predictive of ABIM-CE results compared to USMLE Step 2CK scores. Thus, residency programs can identify internal medicine residents at risk of failing ABIM-CE and formulate interventions at an early stage during residency training. Measures such as enrolling them in question banks or board review courses can be helpful in improving their chances of passing ABIM-CE.

中文翻译：

---

USMLE步骤和ITE分数是否可以预测美国内部医学认证委员会的考试结果？

要评估美国医学许可考试（USMLE）第1步，USMLE第2步CK，USMLE第3步和住院医师在职三年期在职培训考试（ITE）分数是否可以预测美国内部医学认证考试委员会（ABIM）的结果-CE）。我们对USMLE步骤1，USMLE步骤2 CK，USMLE步骤3，第三年居住ITE得分以及我们从2004年至2017年的IM居民的ABIM-CE结果进行了回顾性回顾。采用Pearson相关系数进行统计分析以及逻辑回归，以评估USMLE步骤1，USMLE步骤2CK，USMLE步骤3，三年级ITE得分与ABIM-CE结果之间的关系。我们基于USMLE和控制其他协变量的三年期ITE测试成绩，使用多元逻辑回归来预测ABIM-CE中的通过或失败结果。在研究中包括的114名内科医学博士居民中，有92％（n = 105）通过了ABIM-CE。通过ABIM-CE的OR为2.70（95％CI = 1.38–5.29），2.31（95％CI = 1.33–4.01）和1.63（95％CI = 0.81–3.29），USMLE步长增加了10分1，USMLE步骤2 CK和USMLE步骤3得分。ABIM-CE通过机会的OR为2.96（95％CI = 0.95-9.20），上述三项考试的平均分数提高了10分。ITE百分比增加5％会增加通过ABIM-CE的可能性（或2.92，95％CI 1.15–7.38）。所有未通过ABIM-CE考试的居民，其第1步得分均<220。在第2步CK得分<220的31位居民中，有20％（n = 6）的未通过ABIM。同样，USMLE步骤3得分<220的居民中有9％的ABIM-CE失败；所有失败的居民得分均<220。概率曲线预测，USMLE分数大于200时，通过ABIM-CE的机会约为80％，USMLE分数为250或更高时，通过ABIM-CE的机会增加到几乎100％。USMLE第1步，USMLE第2步CK和三年级ITE分数可以预测通过ABIM-CE的机会。与USMLE步骤1和USMLE步骤2得分相比，三年级ITE得分具有更高的掠夺性价值。与USMLE步骤2CK得分相比，USMLE步骤1对ABIM-CE结果的预测性更高。因此，住院医师计划可以识别有可能导致ABIM-CE失败的内科医师，并在住院医师培训的早期阶段制定干预措施。将他们注册到问题银行或董事会审查课程等措施可能有助于提高他们通过ABIM-CE的机会。