The persistence of endangered species may depend on the fate of a very small number of individual animals. In situ conservation alone may sometimes be insufficient. In these instances, the International Union for Conservation of Nature provides guidelines for ex situ conservation and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) indicates how ex situ management can support the CDB's objectives by providing insurance policies for species. The circumstances that justify its use are uncertain. To evaluate the current in situ extinction risk and ex situ management of 43 critically endangered species of mammalian megafauna, we used nonmetric multidimensional scaling and geopolitical variables related to governance, economics, and national policy within their extant ranges. We then fitted generalized additive models to assess the contribution of each variable to the ordination. Fifteen (almost one-third) of the world's terrestrial mammalian megafauna are not the subject of any ex situ management. Seventy-three percent of these taxa occur in areas characterized by political uncertainty, such as border zones or areas affected by armed conflicts, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. A further 23% of taxa in ex situ programs do not meet sustainability criteria for inbreeding avoidance. Strategic conservation planning, such as the One Plan approach, may improve ex situ management for these taxa. Given the escalating trend in threats afflicting megafauna, ex situ management should be considered more rigorously, particularly in politically unstable regions, to achieve CBD Target 12 (prevent extinction of threatened species). Manejo Ex Situ como Protección contra la Extinción de la Megafauna de Mamíferos en un Mundo Incierto This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

中文翻译：

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在不确定的世界中，异地管理作为防止哺乳动物巨型动物灭绝的保险

濒危物种的持久性可能取决于极少数动物个体的命运。仅就地保护有时可能是不够的。在这些情况下，国际自然保护联盟为易地保护提供指导方针，生物多样性公约 (CBD) 表明易地管理如何通过为物种提供保险政策来支持 CDB 的目标。证明其使用合理性的情况是不确定的。为了评估 43 种极度濒危哺乳动物巨型动物群的当前原地灭绝风险和异地管理，我们使用了与治理、经济和国家政策相关的非度量多维尺度和地缘政治变量在其现存范围内。然后我们拟合了广义可加模型来评估每个变量对排序的贡献。世界上有 15 个（几乎三分之一）的陆地哺乳动物巨型动物群不是任何异地管理的对象。这些分类群中有 73% 出现在政治不确定性的地区，例如边境地区或受武装冲突影响的地区，主要是在非洲和中东。另有 23% 的异地计划分类群不符合避免近亲繁殖的可持续性标准。战略性保护规划，例如 One Plan 方法，可以改善这些类群的异地管理。鉴于影响巨型动物的威胁不断升级的趋势，应更严格地考虑异地管理，特别是在政治不稳定的地区，实现 CBD 目标 12（防止受威胁物种灭绝）。Manejo Ex Situ como Protección contra la Extinción de la Megafauna de Mamíferos en un Mundo Incierto 本文受版权保护。版权所有。