Abstract Maize is the third most cultivated food crop in the world. Therefore, the impact of climate change and the development of adaptation strategies for maize are crucial to agricultural production and food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impact of climate change and the development of adaptations strategies for maize in semi-arid environments using the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). The model was calibrated and evaluated with an experimental data set and compared to on-farm data. The sensitivity of the model was evaluated against Carbon, Temperature, Water and Nitrogen (CTWN) analysis for the same environments. Survey data for maize were collected from 64 farms in the Faisalabad district of Pakistan using a stratified random sampling technique. Initial crop conditions and management practices were used as input data for CSM-CERES-Maize. Current climate data from 1980 to 2010 were obtained from the nearest weather station and future climate projections for 2040–2069 were obtained from Global Climate Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) were designed to represent the future autonomous production system. The GCM results showed an increase of 3.4 °C in maximum and 3.8 °C in minimum temperature for hot/dry conditions. The projected increase in temperatures for the hot/dry GCM would result in a 28 % reduction for the current production system and a 29 % reduction for the future maize production system by the middle of the century. The impact of climate adaption options on current production systems was evaluated and the results showed that yield increased by 21 %. Results of climate adaptation for the future production system indicated that yield would increase by 12–17 % for all GCMs. Both the current and future production systems were negatively affected by climate change. However, improved management as adaptation strategies can offset the potential decrease in yield.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下半干旱环境下玉米生产的适应策略

摘要 玉米是世界第三大粮食作物。因此，气候变化的影响和玉米适应战略的制定对农业生产和粮食安全至关重要。目前的研究是为了使用农业技术转让决策支持系统 (DSSAT) 的种植系统模型 (CSM)-CERES-玉米评估气候变化的影响以及在半干旱环境中为玉米制定适应策略。该模型使用实验数据集进行校准和评估，并与农场数据进行比较。针对相同环境的碳、温度、水和氮 (CTWN) 分析评估了模型的敏感性。使用分层随机抽样技术从巴基斯坦费萨拉巴德地区的 64 个农场收集了玉米调查数据。初始作物条件和管理实践被用作 CSM-CERES-玉米的输入数据。1980 年至 2010 年的当前气候数据来自最近的气象站，2040 年至 2069 年的未来气候预测来自全球气候模型 (GCM)，其代表浓度路径 (RCP) 8.5。代表性农业途径 (RAP) 旨在代表未来的自主生产系统。GCM 结果显示，在热/干燥条件下，最高温度增加了 3.4 °C，最低温度增加了 3.8 °C。预计到本世纪中叶，热/干 GCM 的温度升高将导致当前生产系统降低 28%，未来玉米生产系统降低 29%。评估了气候适应选项对当前生产系统的影响，结果表明产量增加了 21%。未来生产系统的气候适应结果表明，所有 GCM 的产量将增加 12-17%。当前和未来的生产系统都受到气候变化的负面影响。然而，作为适应策略的改进管理可以抵消产量的潜在下降。未来生产系统的气候适应结果表明，所有 GCM 的产量将增加 12-17%。当前和未来的生产系统都受到气候变化的负面影响。然而，作为适应策略的改进管理可以抵消产量的潜在下降。未来生产系统的气候适应结果表明，所有 GCM 的产量将增加 12-17%。当前和未来的生产系统都受到气候变化的负面影响。然而，作为适应策略的改进管理可以抵消产量的潜在下降。