The increasing accumulation of zinc (Zn) in agricultural soils has led to the need to assess the potential risk of this element for terrestrial organisms. However, the soil ecological criteria in agricultural soil as a function of soil properties have been sparsely reported. In the present study, we derived the ecological criteria (expressed as predicted no effect concentration (PNEC)) for Zn in soils, based on ecotoxicity data for 19 terrestrial species in Chinese soils, the effect of soil properties on Zn ecotoxicity, differences in species sensitivity, and differences between laboratory and realistic field conditions. First, all ecotoxicity data of Zn for terrestrial organisms in Chinese soils were collected and filtered with given criteria to obtain reliable database. Second, the ecotoxicity data were normalized using Zn ecotoxicity predictive models to eliminate the effect of soil properties on Zn ecotoxicity, and corrected with leaching and aging factors to minimize the differences in Zn ecotoxicity under laboratory and field conditions. Then, species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves were generated with a Burr Ⅲ function based on corrected ecotoxicity data. The concentration of Zn in soil that provides ecological safety for (100 − x)% of species (HC_x), was calculated from the SSD curve and HC₅ was used for estimation of PNEC. Finally, we developed the predictive models for HC_x by quantifying the relationship between the Zn HC_x and soil properties. Results showed that soil pH was the most crucial factor affecting Zn HC_x values, with HC₅ values varying from 38.3 mg/kg in an acidic soil to 263.3 mg/kg in an alkaline calcareous soil. Both the two-factor (soil pH and OC) and the three-factor (soil pH, OC and CEC) models predicted HC_x values well, with determination coefficients (R²) of 0.941–0.959 and 0.978–0.982, respectively. This study provides a scientific and reliable basis for the improvement of ecological risk assessment and the establishment of soil environmental quality standards.