A dynamic risk factor is a variable that can change across time, and as it changes, there is a corresponding change in the likelihood of the outcome. In corrections, there is evidence for dynamic risk factors when relatively more proximal reassessments enhance predictive validity for recidivism. In this article, we tested the proximity hypothesis with longitudinal, multiple-reassessment data gathered from 3,421 individuals supervised on parole in New Zealand (N = 68,667 assessments of theoretically dynamic risk factors conducted by corrections case managers). In this sample, reassessments consistently improved prediction as demonstrated by (1) incremental prediction over initial baseline scores and (2) improved model fit of the most recent assessment compared with the average of earlier scores. These results contribute to a growing body of evidence that support community corrections agencies conducting repeated assessments of the risk for imminent recidivism using a dynamic risk instrument. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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重新评估可改善对犯罪再犯的预测：一项对新西兰3,421个人的前瞻性研究。

动态风险因素是可以随时间变化的变量，并且随着变化，结果发生的可能性也会相应变化。在校正中，有证据表明当相对较多的近端重新评估可提高累犯的预测效度时，会产生动态危险因素。在本文中，我们使用了从3,421名在新西兰进行假释监督的个人收集的纵向，多次再评估数据来检验接近假设（N = 68,667名矫正个案经理对理论上的动态风险因素进行了评估）。在此样本中，重新评估持续改善了预测，如（1）相对于初始基线分数的增量预测和（2）与较早分数的平均值相比，最新评估的模型拟合得到了改善。这些结果为越来越多的证据提供了支持，这些证据支持社区矫正机构使用动态风险工具对即将发生的累犯风险进行反复评估。（PsycINFO数据库记录（c）2020 APA，保留所有权利）。