当前位置: X-MOL 学术Earth s Future › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise
Earth s Future Pub Date : 2019-10-16 , DOI: 10.1029/2018ef001145
Robert E Kopp 1, 2 , Elisabeth A Gilmore 3 , Christopher M Little 4 , Jorge Lorenzo-Trueba 5 , Victoria C Ramenzoni 1, 6 , William V Sweet 7
Affiliation  

Sea‐level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea‐level rise involve infrastructure and land‐use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems. Thus, sea‐level science has increasingly grappled with the implications of (1) deep uncertainty in future climate system projections, particularly of human emissions and ice sheet dynamics; (2) the overlay of slow trends and high‐frequency variability (e.g., tides and storms) that give rise to many of the most relevant impacts; (3) the effects of changing sea level on the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems; and (4) the challenges of engaging stakeholder communities with the scientific process in a way that genuinely increases the utility of the science for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental climate system research remains to be done, but many of the most critical issues sit at the intersection of natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, decision science, and political economy. Addressing these issues demands a better understanding of the coupled interactions of mean and extreme sea levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, and migration; decision‐first approaches that identify and focus research upon those scientific uncertainties most relevant to concrete adaptation choices; and a political economy that allows usable science to become used science.

中文翻译:

管理海平面上升风险的可用科学

海平面上升位于可用气候变化研究的前沿,因为它涉及自然和人类系统,具有长期滞后、不可逆转的损失和深度不确定性。例如,许多适应海平面上升的措施涉及基础设施和土地利用决策,这些决策可能具有多代人的生命周期,并将进一步影响自然和人类系统的反应。因此,海平面科学越来越多地致力于解决以下问题的影响:(1)未来气候系统预测的深度不确定性,特别是人类排放和冰盖动态;(2) 缓慢趋势和高频变化(例如潮汐和风暴)的叠加会产生许多最相关的影响;(3) 海平面变化对生态和社会经济系统的物理暴露和脆弱性的影响;(4) 让利益相关者群体参与科学进程,真正提高科学在适应决策中的效用所面临的挑战。许多基础气候系统研究仍有待完成,但许多最关键的问题属于自然科学、社会科学、工程学、决策科学和政治经济学的交叉点。解决这些问题需要更好地了解平均海平面和极端海平面、沿海地貌、经济和移民之间的耦合相互作用;决策优先的方法,确定并集中研究与具体适应选择最相关的科学不确定性;以及允许可用科学成为可用科学的政治经济学。
更新日期:2019-10-16
down
wechat
bug