Germline genome editing has garnered dire predictions about its societal effects, but experience with other reproductive technologies should caution us about making extravagant claims. Amniocentesis was predicted to result in increased stigmatization of people born with Down syndrome, but in fact people with these conditions have been increasingly integrated into schools and workplaces. Artificial insemination by donor was predicted to result in women choosing to "optimize" their children, but in fact most women eschewed the offerings of the so-called "genius sperm bank," and when choosing among donors, have tended to look for those who most resemble their husbands and partners. IVF was predicted to cause parents to view children as commodities, but no such change has been evidenced. Preimplantation genetic diagnosis was predicted to become widespread and used for an ever-increasing range of conditions, including those unrelated to serious disease or shortened life span, but this has not happened either. Critics of germline genome editing have argued that even if it were safe and effective, it would inevitably be abused by prospective parents who wish to improve upon what is already predicted to be a healthy outcome, and that this practice would become sufficiently widespread among those able to afford it that we would be creating a new genetic caste system. Before developing policy around such predictions, it is important to learn from the past.

中文翻译：

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谁害怕大坏人（种系编辑）狼？

生殖系基因组编辑已经对其社会影响做出了可怕的预测，但其他生殖技术的经验应该提醒我们不要做出过分夸大的声明。羊膜穿刺术预计会导致唐氏综合症患者的污名化程度增加，但实际上患有这些疾病的人越来越多地融入学校和工作场所。预计捐赠者的人工授精会导致女性选择“优化”她们的孩子，但实际上大多数女性都避开了所谓的“天才精子库”的产品，在选择捐赠者时，倾向于寻找那些最像他们的丈夫和伴侣。预计试管婴儿会导致父母将孩子视为商品，但没有证据表明这种变化。预计胚胎植入前遗传学诊断将变得广泛并用于越来越多的疾病，包括与严重疾病或寿命缩短无关的疾病，但这也没有发生。生殖系基因组编辑的批评者认为，即使它是安全有效的，它也不可避免地会被希望改善已经预测为健康结果的准父母滥用，并且这种做法将在那些有能力的人中变得足够普遍。负担得起，我们将创建一个新的基因种姓制度。在围绕此类预测制定政策之前，重要的是要从过去吸取教训。生殖系基因组编辑的批评者认为，即使它是安全有效的，它也不可避免地会被希望改善已经预测为健康结果的准父母滥用，并且这种做法将在那些有能力的人中变得足够普遍。负担得起，我们将创建一个新的基因种姓制度。在围绕此类预测制定政策之前，重要的是要从过去吸取教训。生殖系基因组编辑的批评者认为，即使它是安全有效的，它也不可避免地会被希望改善已经预测为健康结果的准父母滥用，并且这种做法将在那些有能力的人中变得足够普遍。负担得起，我们将创建一个新的基因种姓制度。在围绕此类预测制定政策之前，重要的是要从过去吸取教训。