Because demographic realism complicates analysis, mathematical modelers either ignore demography or make simplifying assumptions (e.g., births and deaths equal). But human populations differ demographically, perhaps most notably in their mortality schedules. We developed an age-stratified population model with births, deaths, aging and mixing between age groups. The model includes types I and II mortality as special cases. We used the gradient approach (Feng et al., 2015, 2017) to explore the impact of mortality patterns on optimal strategies for mitigating vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles and rubella, which the international community has targeted for eradication. Identification of optimal vaccine allocations to reduce the effective reproduction number Rv under various scenarios is presented. Numerical simulations of the model with various types of mortality are carried out to ascertain the long-term effects of vaccination on disease incidence. We conclude that both optimal vaccination strategies and long-term effects of vaccination may depend on demographic assumptions.

中文翻译：

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在年龄结构模型中，人口现实的死亡率计划对疫苗接种策略的影响。

由于人口现实主义使分析复杂化，数学建模者要么忽略人口统计学，要么做出简化假设（例如，出生和死亡相等）。但人口在人口统计学上有所不同，也许最显着的是他们的死亡时间表。我们开发了一个年龄分层的人口模型，其中包含出生、死亡、老龄化和年龄组之间的混合。该模型将 I 型和 II 型死亡率作为特例。我们使用梯度方法 (Feng et al., 2015, 2017) 来探索死亡率模式对缓解麻疹和风疹等疫苗可预防疾病的最佳策略的影响，这些疾病是国际社会根除的目标。提出了在各种情况下确定最佳疫苗分配以减少有效繁殖数 Rv。对具有各种死亡率的模型进行了数值模拟，以确定疫苗接种对疾病发病率的长期影响。我们得出结论，最佳疫苗接种策略和疫苗接种的长期影响可能取决于人口统计假设。