Background Environmental changes are predicted to threaten human health, agricultural production and food security. Whilst their impact has been evaluated for major cereals, legumes and vegetables, no systematic evidence synthesis has been performed to date evaluating impact of environmental change on fruits, nuts and seeds (FN&S) - valuable sources of nutrients and pivotal in reducing risks of non-communicable disease. Methods We systematically searched seven databases, identifying available published literature (1970-2018) evaluating impacts of water availability and salinity, temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) on yields and nutritional quality of FN&S. Dose-response relationships were assessed and, where possible, mean yield changes relative to baseline conditions were calculated. Results 81 papers on fruits and 24 papers on nuts and seeds were identified, detailing 582 and 167 experiments respectively. A 50% reduction in water availability and a 3-4dS/m increase in water salinity resulted in significant fruit yield reductions (mean yield changes: -20.7% [95%CI -43.1% to -1.7%]; and -28.2% [95%CI -53.0% to -3.4%] respectively). A 75-100% increase in CO2 concentrations resulted in positive yield impacts (+37.8%; [95%CI 4.1% to 71.5%]; and 10.1%; [95%CI -30.0% to 50.3%] for fruits and nuts respectively). Evidence on yield impacts of increased O3 concentrations and elevated temperatures (>25°C) was scarce, but consistently negative. The positive effect of elevated CO2 levels appeared to attenuate with simultaneous exposure to elevated temperatures. Data on impacts of environmental change on nutritional quality of FN&S were sparse, with mixed results. Discussion In the absence of adaptation strategies, predicted environmental changes will reduce yields of FN&S. With global intake already well-below WHO recommendations, declining FN&S yields may adversely affect population health. Adaptation strategies and careful agricultural and food system planning will be essential to optimise crop productivity in the context of future environmental changes, thereby supporting and safeguarding sustainable and resilient food systems.

中文翻译：

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环境变化对水果、坚果和种子产量和营养品质的影响：系统评价

背景 预计环境变化将威胁人类健康、农业生产和粮食安全。虽然已经评估了它们对主要谷物、豆类和蔬菜的影响，但迄今为止尚未进行系统性证据综合评估环境变化对水果、坚果和种子 (FN&S) 的影响——它们是营养的宝贵来源，对于降低非营养物质的风险至关重要。传染病。方法 我们系统地搜索了七个数据库，确定了可用的已发表文献 (1970-2018)，评估了水的可用性和盐度、温度、二氧化碳 (CO2) 和臭氧 (O3) 对 FN&S 的产量和营养质量的影响。评估了剂量反应关系，并在可能的情况下计算了相对于基线条件的平均产量变化。结果 81 篇关于水果的论文和 24 篇关于坚果和种子的论文被识别，分别详述了 582 和 167 个实验。可用水量减少 50%，水盐度增加 3-4dS/m，导致果实产量显着下降（平均产量变化：-20.7% [95%CI -43.1% 至 -1.7%]；和 -28.2% [ 95%CI -53.0% 至 -3.4%]）。CO2 浓度增加 75-100% 会对产量产生积极影响（水果和坚果分别增加 37.8%；[95%CI 4.1% 至 71.5%]；和 10.1%；[95%CI -30.0% 至 50.3%] ）。关于 O3 浓度增加和温度升高（>25°C）对产量影响的证据很少，但始终是负面的。CO2 水平升高的积极影响似乎随着同时暴露于升高的温度而减弱。环境变化对 FN& 营养质量影响的数据 S 稀疏，结果好坏参半。讨论 在没有适应策略的情况下，预测的环境变化将降低 FN&S 的产量。由于全球摄入量已经远低于世卫组织的建议，FN&S 产量下降可能会对人口健康产生不利影响。适应战略和谨慎的农业和粮食系统规划对于在未来环境变化的背景下优化作物生产力至关重要，从而支持和保障可持续和有弹性的粮食系统。