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Comparative Assessment of Climate Engineering Scenarios in the Presence of Parametric Uncertainty
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ( IF 6.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-03 , DOI: 10.1029/2019ms001787
Giang T. Tran 1 , Andreas Oschlies 1 , David P. Keller 1
Affiliation  

Climate engineering (CE) measures are increasingly discussed when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change. While much research has focused on individual methods, few studies attempt to compare and rank the effectiveness of these measures. Furthermore, model uncertainties are seldom acknowledged and lesser still, estimated when CE scenarios are assessed. In this work, we quantify the variance in outcomes due to poorly constrained model parameters under several idealized CE scenarios. The four scenarios considered are (1) warming under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 without CE applied and the same emission scenario with (2) afforestation,(3) solar radiation management, and (4) artificial ocean alkalinization. By considering the parametric uncertainty in model outputs, we demonstrate the problems with comparing these scenarios using a single parameter setting. Using statistical emulation, we estimate the probability distributions of several model outcomes. Based on such distributions, we suggest an approach to ranking the effectiveness of the scenarios considered according to their probability of avoiding climate thresholds.

中文翻译:

存在参数不确定性的气候工程方案的比较评估

在应对气候变化的不利影响时,越来越多地讨论气候工程(CE)措施。尽管很多研究都集中在单个方法上,但是很少有研究尝试比较和评估这些措施的有效性。此外,当评估CE情景时,很少会确认模型的不确定性,估计的不确定性则要低得多。在这项工作中,我们量化了在几种理想的CE场景下由于模型参数约束不足而导致的结果差异。所考虑的四个方案是(1)在没有应用CE的高排放方案“代表浓度途径8.5”下变暖,以及在(2)造林,(3)太阳辐射管理和(4)人工海洋碱化的相同排放方案下。通过考虑模型输出中的参数不确定性,我们通过使用单个参数设置比较这些方案来演示问题。使用统计仿真,我们估计了几种模型结果的概率分布。基于这样的分布,我们建议一种根据情景避免气候阈值的可能性对情景有效性进行排名的方法。
更新日期:2020-04-03
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