The majority of previous studies examining life cycle greenhouse gas (LCGHG) emissions of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have focused on efficiency-oriented vehicle designs with limited battery capacities. However, two dominant trends in the US BEV market make these studies increasingly obsolete: sales show significant increases in battery capacity and attendant range and are increasingly dominated by large luxury or high-performance vehicles. In addition, an era of new use and ownership models may mean significant changes to vehicle utilization, and the carbon intensity of electricity is expected to decrease. Thus, the question is whether these trends significantly alter our expectations of future BEV LCGHG emissions.

To answer this question, three archetypal vehicle designs for the year 2025 along with scenarios for increased range and different use models are simulated in an LCGHG model: an efficiency-oriented compact vehicle; a high performance luxury sedan; and a luxury sport utility vehicle. While production emissions are less than 10% of LCGHG emissions for today’s gasoline vehicles, they account for about 40% for a BEV, and as much as two-thirds of a future BEV operated on a primarily renewable grid. Larger battery systems and low utilization do not outweigh expected reductions in emissions from electricity used for vehicle charging. These trends could be exacerbated by increasing BEV market shares for larger vehicles. However, larger battery systems could reduce per-mile emissions of BEVs in high mileage applications, like on-demand ride sharing or shared vehicle fleets, meaning that trends in use patterns may countervail those in BEV design.

先前研究电池电动汽车（BEV）生命周期温室气体（LCGHG）排放的大多数研究都集中于电池容量有限的以效率为导向的车辆设计。但是，美国BEV市场的两个主要趋势使这些研究变得过时：销售显示出电池容量和乘员范围的显着增加，并且越来越多地由大型豪华或高性能汽车主导。此外，新的使用和所有权模型时代可能意味着车辆利用率发生重大变化，并且电力的碳强度有望降低。因此，问题在于这些趋势是否会显着改变我们对未来BEV LCGHG排放的期望。

为了回答这个问题，在LCGHG模型中模拟了2025年的三种原型车辆设计，以及扩大范围和不同用途模型的方案：高性能豪华轿车；和一辆豪华越野车。尽管当今的汽油车的生产排放量不到LCGHG排放量的10％，但它们占BEV的40％左右，而在主要使用可再生能源的电网上运行的未来BEV中，这一比例高达三分之二。较大的电池系统和较低的利用率不会超过预期的车辆充电所产生的排放量减少量。大型车辆的BEV市场份额增加可能会加剧这些趋势。但是，较大的电池系统可以减少高里程应用中BEV的每英里排放量，