Abstract American chestnut (Castanea dentata) once held great economic and ecological importance in eastern US forests before its demise due to an invasive blight fungus. Backcross breeding and genetic engineering methods are currently developing a blight-resistant tree with mostly American chestnut traits. With the potential reintroduction of chestnut, research has sought to understand the geographic distribution of chestnut to locate potential restoration sites, but less research has compared ideal restoration sites to underlying land ownership. This research models the historical distribution of chestnut in western New York State (NYS, approximately 27,617 km2), containing a portion of the original range of chestnut, in order to determine suitable areas for chestnut reintroduction. This study models chestnut distribution using original land survey record (OLSR) data (ca. 1797–1799 CE) and species distribution models (SDMs), then compares model predictions to current protected lands. Results indicate that depending upon modeling technique, predicted suitable habitat for chestnut ranges 27.9–49.7% of the study area, and that 8.0–11.5% of suitable area is within protected land parcels. SDMs suggest that within the study area, the two predictors most important to chestnut distribution are soil pH and terrain slope, with chestnut favoring acidic soils and steeper slopes. By identifying sites for potential reintroduction of chestnut, this study highlights that reintroduction will depend upon cooperation of private landowners along with governments and non-governmental agencies. This study offers a revision to the historical distribution of chestnut in western NYS, and provides insight into land ownership and management issues facing its restoration.

中文翻译：

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模拟美洲板栗 (Castanea dentata) 的历史分布，以便在美国纽约州西部进行潜在恢复

摘要 美国板栗 (Castanea dentata) 在美国东部森林因入侵的枯萎病真菌而消亡之前曾具有重要的经济和生态重要性。回交育种和基因工程方法目前正在开发一种主要具有美洲板栗特性的抗枯萎病树。随着板栗的潜在重新引入，研究试图了解板栗的地理分布以定位潜在的恢复地点，但很少有研究将理想的恢复地点与潜在的土地所有权进行比较。本研究模拟了纽约州西部（纽约州，约 27,617 平方公里）板栗的历史分布，其中包含一部分板栗的原始范围，以确定板栗重新引入的合适区域。本研究使用原始土地调查记录 (OLSR) 数据（公元 1797-1799 年）和物种分布模型 (SDM) 对栗子分布进行建模，然后将模型预测与当前受保护土地进行比较。结果表明，根据建模技术，预测的板栗适宜栖息地范围为研究区域的 27.9-49.7%，8.0-11.5% 的适宜区域位于受保护地块内。SDM 表明，在研究区域内，对栗子分布最重要的两个预测因子是土壤 pH 值和地形坡度，栗子喜欢酸性土壤和更陡峭的坡度。通过确定可能重新引入板栗的地点，本研究强调重新引入将取决于私人土地所有者与政府和非政府机构的合作。