Abstract Plants go through a physiological process of cold hardening to limit the damage, caused by low temperatures at the end of fall and winter. Under a variable climate, plants may be less or more cold hardened and hence more or less susceptible to the effects of an unexpected temperature drop. Seasonal patterns were estimated for three cherry cultivars that vary in freezing tolerance. Measures were taken during fall, winter and early spring for four consecutive seasons. The objective of the study was to develop an empirical dynamic cold hardiness model applicable to three cherry cultivars. The data used to develop the model came from cold hardiness measurements collected for cherry bud hardiness of Bing, Chelan, and Sweetheart during four consecutive seasons (2012–2015) consolidated from the 1st of October through April 30th per each season. Three quantitative lethal temperatures LT10, LT50 and LT90 of bud freezing were estimated from fitted sigmoid curves using a logistic function. Correlations and auto-correlations between lethal observed temperatures and air temperatures (maximum, minimum and average) were calculated. A nonlinear model then was fitted including the lethal temperature of the two days prior to freezing, the accumulative day for the studied period and the maximum temperature. Equation coefficients of cultivar-specific models were determined for each cultivar. Cold hardiness predictions were compared to actual observations for each cultivar and the confidence limits and uncertainty were derived. The model allowed for comparisons of cold hardening and de-hardening between the studied cultivars and between seasons. The information generated by the model can be valuable for frost protection management.

中文翻译：

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樱桃抗寒性估计的建模方法

摘要 植物经历冷硬化的生理过程，以限制秋末和冬季低温造成的损害。在多变的气候下，植物可能会或多或少地冷硬化，因此或多或少容易受到意外温度下降的影响。对耐寒性不同的三个樱桃品种的季节性模式进行了估计。连续四个季节在秋季、冬季和早春采取措施。该研究的目的是开发适用于三个樱桃品种的经验动态抗寒模型。用于开发模型的数据来自每个季节从 10 月 1 日到 4 月 30 日的连续四个季节（2012-2015 年）收集的 Bing、Chelan 和 Sweetheart 樱桃芽抗寒性的抗寒性测量值。使用逻辑函数从拟合的 sigmoid 曲线估计芽冷冻的三个定量致死温度 LT10、LT50 和 LT90。计算了致命观测温度和气温（最大值、最小值和平均值）之间的相关性和自相关性。然后拟合非线性模型，包括冻结前两天的致死温度、研究期间的累积天数和最高温度。确定每个栽培品种的栽培品种特异性模型的方程系数。将抗寒性预测与每个品种的实际观察结果进行比较，并得出置信限和不确定性。该模型允许比较研究品种之间和季节之间的冷硬化和去硬化。