Background

Iran lacks a population level comprehensive assessment of stroke epidemiology. Using data from the NASBOD Study, we estimated the mortality of stroke among the Iranian population from 1990 to 2015.

Methods

Data were collected from all the available sources including the national death registration system and two major cemeteries. After addressing incompleteness of child and adult death data and by using mixed effect model, spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression, levels and trends of child and adult mortality were estimated. By considering cause fraction to these estimates; cause specific mortality was estimated. In these process wealth index, urbanization, and years of schooling were used as covariates.

Results

In 2015, the age-standardized stroke mortality rate due was 47.76 (95% UI: 34.68–65.03) for males and 40.16 (30.38–5 2.72) for females, per 100,000 population. Stroke occurrence for both ischemic and non-ischemic strokes showed decreasing trends in both sexes after 2001–2002, at national and sub-national levels. The highest and lowest mortality rates between provinces ranged from 52.11 (40.3–66.66) to 24.47 (18.71–31.79) in men and from 65.51 (47.13–89.41) to 30.43 (21.95–41.82) in women per 100,000 population.

Conclusion

Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality are falling, in the past three decades, the absolute number of people who have had a stroke has increased. Stroke mortality remains high in Iran.

中文翻译：

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伊朗人口中风和卒中死亡率的国家和地区以下模式（1990-2015年）：NASBOD研究的补充结果

背景

伊朗缺乏对中风流行病学的人口水平综合评估。使用来自NASBOD研究的数据，我们估算了1990年至2015年伊朗人口中风的死亡率。

方法

从包括国家死亡登记系统和两个主要墓地在内的所有可用来源收集数据。在解决了儿童和成人死亡数据的不完备性之后，通过使用混合效应模型，时空模型和高斯过程回归，估计了儿童和成人死亡率的水平和趋势。通过考虑这些估计的原因部分；引起特定死亡率的估计。在这些过程中，将财富指数，城市化程度和受教育年限用作协变量。

结果

2015年，每100,000人口中，男性的年龄标准化卒中死亡率为47.76（95％UI：34.68–65.03），女性为40.16（30.38–5.72）。在国家和国家以下各级，2001年至2002年后，缺血性和非缺血性卒中的卒中发生率均呈下降趋势。每十万人口中，各省之间的最高和最低死亡率介于52.11（40.3–66.66）至24.47（18.71–31.79）和65.51（47.13–89.41）至30.43（21.95–41.82）之间。

结论

尽管按年龄标准化的中风死亡率正在下降，但在过去的三十年中，中风的绝对人数有所增加。伊朗的卒中死亡率仍然很高。