Hurricanes can damage transmission network structure components, e.g., towers and conductors, and threat the system reliability. To quantify the consequence severity of hurricanes on transmission networks, a spatial-temporal reliability and damage assessment method is proposed to evaluate the effect of a specific hurricane. The hurricane can be a simulated, historical, or forecasting one for different application purpose, where the full track hurricane simulation model, historical records, and forecasting information are used for the event construction, respectively. In the component failure analysis, the time-varying failure probability of transmission towers and conductors are modeled as functions of the time-varying hurricane intensity. In the reliability and damage assessment, the Monte Carlo simulation is adopted. The energy not supplied and power outage cost caused by the hurricane event are used as reliability indices, and the asset damage cost is proposed to quantify the damage of transmission networks. The modified IEEE 24-reliability test system and the two-area IEEE reliability test system-1996 affected by a simulated hurricane, respectively, are used in the case study to validate the proposed method. The simulation results show the method can quantify the hurricane impacts, identify the weak network parts, and provide information for pre-event preparedness for forecasting event application.

中文翻译：

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飓风下输电网络的时空可靠性和损伤评估

飓风会损坏传输网络结构组件，例如铁塔和导线，并威胁系统可靠性。为了量化飓风对输电网络的严重程度，提出了一种时空可靠性和损害评估方法，以评估特定飓风的影响。飓风可以是针对不同应用目的的模拟，历史或预测飓风，其中全程飓风模拟模型，历史记录和预测信息分别用于事件构建。在组件故障分析中，将输电塔和导体的时变故障概率建模为飓风时变强度的函数。在可靠性和损伤评估中，采用了蒙特卡洛模拟。飓风事件造成的未供应能源和停电成本被用作可靠性指标，并提出了资产损失成本来量化输电网络的损失。在案例研究中，分别使用了经过改进的IEEE 24可靠性测试系统和受模拟飓风影响的两区域IEEE可靠性测试系统-1996来验证所提出的方法。仿真结果表明，该方法可以量化飓风的影响，识别薄弱的网络部分，并为预测事件应用提供事件前准备信息。在案例研究中，分别使用了经过改进的IEEE 24可靠性测试系统和受模拟飓风影响的两区域IEEE可靠性测试系统-1996来验证所提出的方法。仿真结果表明，该方法可以量化飓风的影响，识别薄弱的网络部分，并为预测事件应用提供事件前准备信息。在案例研究中，分别使用了经过改进的IEEE 24可靠性测试系统和受模拟飓风影响的两区域IEEE可靠性测试系统-1996来验证所提出的方法。仿真结果表明，该方法可以量化飓风的影响，识别薄弱的网络部分，并为预测事件应用提供事件前准备信息。