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Relationship between heatwave-induced forest die-off and climatic suitability in multiple tree species.
Global Change Biology ( IF 11.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-13 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15042
Jordi Margalef-Marrase 1 , María Ángeles Pérez-Navarro 1 , Francisco Lloret 1, 2
Affiliation  

In recent decades many forest die-off events have been reported in relation to climate change-induced episodes, such as droughts and heat waves. To understand how these extreme climatic events induce forest die-off it is important to find a tool to standardize the climatic conditions experienced by different populations during a specific climatic event, taking into account the historic climatic conditions of the site where these populations live (bioclimatic niche). In this study we used estimates of climatic suitability calculated from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for such purpose. We studied forest die-off across France during the 2003 heatwave that affected Western Europe, by using 2,943 forest inventory plots dominated by fourteen single tree species. Die-off severity was estimated by NDVI loss using MODIS remote sensor imagery. Climatic suitability at local level during the historical 1979-2002 period (HCS), the episode time (2003) (ECS) and suitability deviance during the historical period (HCS-SD)) were calculated for each species by means of BRT models using the CHELSA climate database and occurrences extracted from European forest inventories. Low HCS-SD and high mean annual temperature explained the overall regional pattern of vulnerability to die-off across different monospecific forests. The combination of high historical and low episode climatic suitability also contributed significantly to overall forest die-off. Furthermore, we observed different species-specific relationships between die-off vulnerability and climatic suitability: Sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean species tended to be vulnerable in historically more suitable localities (high HCS); while, Euro-Siberian species presented greater vulnerability when the hot drought episode was more intense. We demonstrated that at regional scale, past climatic legacy plays an important role in explaining NDVI loss during the episode. Moreover, we demonstrated that SDMs-derived indexes, such as HCS, ECS and HCS-SD, could constitute a tool for standardizing the ways that populations and species experience climatic variability across time and space.

中文翻译:

热浪引起的森林枯死与多种树木的气候适应性之间的关系。

在最近的几十年中,已经报道了许多与气候变化引起的事件有关的森林死亡事件,例如干旱和热浪。为了了解这些极端气候事件是如何导致森林死亡的,重要的是找到一种工具来标准化特定种群在特定气候事件中所经历的气候条件,同时考虑这些种群所居住的地点的历史气候条件(生物气候利基)。在这项研究中,我们为此目的使用了根据物种分布模型(SDM)计算出的气候适宜性估算值。通过使用以14种单一树种为主的2,943个森林蓄积地,我们研究了2003年影响西欧的热浪期间整个法国的森林枯死。使用MODIS遥感影像通过NDVI损失估算了死亡的严重程度。使用BRT模型,利用BRT模型计算了1979-2002年历史时期(HCS)在当地的气候适宜性(HCS),发病时间(2003年)(ECS)和历史时期(HCS-SD)的适宜性偏差。切尔萨气候数据库和从欧洲森林清单中提取的事件。低HCS-SD和较高的年平均温度解释了整个地区在不同的单种森林中容易死亡的总体格局。历史悠久和气候适宜性低相结合,也对整个森林的枯萎造成了重大影响。此外,我们观察到了死亡脆弱性和气候适应性之间的不同物种特定关系:地中海地区和地中海物种在历史上更合适的地区(高HCS)倾向于脆弱。而,当炎热干旱更加严重时,欧洲-西伯利亚物种呈现出更大的脆弱性。我们证明,在区域范围内,过去的气候遗留在解释这一事件期间NDVI的损失中起着重要作用。此外,我们证明了源于SDM的指标(例如HCS,ECS和HCS-SD)可以构成一种工具,用于标准化种群和物种随时间和空间经历气候变化的方式。
更新日期:2020-04-22
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