当前位置: X-MOL 学术Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ( IF 11.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-13 , DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1913052117
Rebecca Kahn 1 , Corey M Peak 1 , Juan Fernández-Gracia 1, 2 , Alexandra Hill 3 , Amara Jambai 4 , Louisa Ganda 5 , Marcia C Castro 6 , Caroline O Buckee 7
Affiliation  

Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen's underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen's incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the predictability of outbreaks. We find that differences in the incubation period alone can determine the limits of predictability for diseases with different natural history, both empirically and in our simulations. Our results show that diseases with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, where infected individuals can travel farther before becoming infectious, result in more long-distance sparking events and less predictable disease trajectories, as compared to the more predictable wave-like spread of diseases with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera.

中文翻译:

潜伏期影响塞拉利昂霍乱和埃博拉疫情的空间可预测性。

预测传染病暴发期间的时空传播是流行病应对的重要组成部分。然而,它在方法论和数据要求方面仍然具有挑战性,因为疾病传播受到许多因素的影响,包括病原体的潜在传播参数和流行病学动态、社交网络和人口连通性以及环境条件。在这里,我们利用塞拉利昂的数据分析了最近霍乱和埃博拉疫情爆发的时空动态,并比较和对比了这两种病原体在同一人群中的传播情况。我们开发了流行病空间传播的模拟模型,以研究病原体的潜伏期对传播动态和爆发可预测性的影响。我们发现,无论是在经验上还是在我们的模拟中,仅潜伏期的差异就可以决定具有不同自然史的疾病的可预测性的限制。我们的研究结果表明,与更可预测的波浪式传播疾病相比,潜伏期较长的疾病(例如埃博拉病毒)会导致更多的长距离触发事件和更难以预测的疾病轨迹,其中感染者在感染之前可以传播更远的距离潜伏期较短的疾病,例如霍乱。
更新日期:2020-03-03
down
wechat
bug