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Generation lengths of the world's birds and their implications for extinction risk
Conservation Biology ( IF 6.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-06 , DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13486
Jeremy P Bird 1, 2 , Robert Martin 1 , H Reşit Akçakaya 3, 4 , James Gilroy 5 , Ian J Burfield 1 , Stephen T Garnett 6 , Andy Symes 1 , Joseph Taylor 1 , Çağan H Şekercioğlu 7, 8, 9, 10 , Stuart H M Butchart 1, 10
Affiliation  

Birds have been comprehensively assessed on the IUCN Red List more times than any other taxonomic group. However, to date, generation lengths have not been systematically estimated to scale population trends when undertaking assessments, as required by the Red List Criteria. We compiled information from major databases of published life history and trait data for all birds, and imputed missing life history data as a function of species traits using Generalized Linear Mixed Models. Generation lengths were derived for all species, based on our modelled values of age-at-first-breeding (F), maximum longevity (L) and annual adult survival (S). The resulting generation lengths vary from 1.42 to 27.87 years, with a median of 2.99 years. We found that most species (61%) have generation lengths shorter than 3.33 years, meaning that the period of three generations - over which population declines are assessed under Criterion A of the Red List - was shorter than 10 years, the value used for Red List assessments of species with short generation times. For these species, our trait-informed estimates of generation length suggest that 10 years is a robust precautionary value for threat assessment. In other cases, however, for whole families, genera or individual species, generation length has a substantial impact on their estimated extinction risk, resulting in higher extinction risk in longer-lived species. While our approach is an effective means of addressing data gaps, there is some evidence that generation lengths for some species may still have been underestimated, owing to a paucity of life history data. Overall, our results will strengthen future extinction risk assessments and augment key databases of avian life history and trait data. We hope the findings stimulate future research to fill the remaining data gaps. Article impact statement: Accurate generation lengths for all birds will improve assessment of extinction within the group. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

中文翻译:

世界鸟类的世代长度及其对灭绝风险的影响

鸟类在 IUCN 红色名录中被综合评估的次数比任何其他分类组都要多。然而,迄今为止,尚未按照红色名录标准的要求在进行评估时系统地估计世代长度以衡量种群趋势。我们从已发表的所有鸟类的生活史和特征数据的主要数据库中收集信息,并使用广义线性混合模型将缺失的生活史数据作为物种特征的函数进行估算。根据我们对首次繁殖年龄 (F)、最长寿命 (L) 和成年年存活率 (S) 的建模值,推导出所有物种的世代长度。由此产生的世代长度从 1.42 年到 27.87 年不等,中位数为 2.99 年。我们发现大多数物种 (61%) 的世代长度短于 3.33 年,这意味着三代的时间——根据红色名录的标准 A 评估种群下降的时间——短于 10 年,这是用于对世代时间较短的物种进行红色名录评估的值。对于这些物种,我们对世代长度的性状估计表明,10 年是威胁评估的可靠预防值。然而,在其他情况下,对于整个科、属或单个物种,世代长度对其估计的灭绝风险有重大影响,导致寿命较长物种的灭绝风险更高。虽然我们的方法是解决数据差距的有效手段,但有证据表明,由于缺乏生活史数据,某些物种的世代长度可能仍被低估。全面的,我们的结果将加强未来的灭绝风险评估,并增加鸟类生活史和特征数据的关键数据库。我们希望这些发现刺激未来的研究,以填补剩余的数据空白。文章影响声明:所有鸟类的准确世代长度将改善对群体内灭绝的评估。本文受版权保护。版权所有。
更新日期:2020-05-06
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