Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects ruminants and pigs. Countries with large exports of livestock products are highly vulnerable to economic damage following an FMD incursion. The faster disease spread is controlled, the lower the economic damage. During the past decades, the structure of livestock production has dramatically changed. To maintain the relevance of contingency plans, it is important to understand the effects of changes in herd structure on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In this study, we compare the spread and control of FMD based on 2006/2007 and 2018 livestock data. Spread of FMD in Denmark was simulated using the DTU‐DADS model, applying different control measures. The number of cattle, swine and sheep/goat herds reduced from about 50,000 in total in 2006/2007 to about 33,000 in 2018. During this period, the average number of outgoing animal movements and the exports of swine and swine products increased by about 35% and 22%, respectively. This coincided with an overall increase in herd size of 14%. Using the EU and national control measures (Basic: 3 days standstill, depopulation of detected herds followed by cleaning and disinfection and establishment of control zones, where tracing, surveillance and contact restrictions are implemented), we found that the simulated epidemics in 2018 would be about 50% shorter in duration, affect about 50% fewer herds but cause more economic damage, compared to epidemics using 2006/2007 data. When 2006/2007 data were used, Basic + pre‐emptive depopulation (Depop) overall was the optimal control strategy. When 2018 data were used, this was the case only when epidemics were initiated in cattle herds, whereas when epidemics were initiated in sow or sheep/goats herds, basic performed as well as Depop. The results demonstrate that regular assessment of measures to control the spread of infectious diseases is necessary for contingency planning.

中文翻译：

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农场结构变化对口蹄疫传播和控制的影响：一项模拟研究。

口蹄疫（FMD）是一种高度传染性的病毒性疾病，会影响反刍动物和猪。口蹄疫入侵后，畜产品出口量大的国家极易遭受经济破坏。控制疾病的传播越快，经济损失就越小。在过去的几十年中，畜牧生产的结构发生了巨大变化。为了保持应急计划的相关性，重要的是要了解畜群结构变化对传染病传播和控制的影响。在这项研究中，我们根据2006/2007年和2018年牲畜数据比较了口蹄疫的传播和控制。使用不同的控制措施，使用DTU-DADS模型模拟了丹麦FMD的扩散。牛，猪和绵羊/山羊群的数量从2006/2007年的约50,000减少到了约33，在2018年为000。在此期间，平均外向动物活动数量和猪及猪产品出口分别增长约35％和22％。总体上，畜群规模增加了14％。使用欧盟和国家的控制措施（基本：停顿3天，检测到的种群减少，然后进行清洁和消毒以及建立控制区，在其中进行跟踪，监视和接触限制），我们发现2018年的模拟流行病将是与使用2006/2007年数据得出的流行病相比，病程缩短了约50％，对牧群的影响减少了约50％，但造成了更大的经济损失。当使用2006/2007数据时，基本+先发性人口减少（Depop）总体是最佳控制策略。当使用2018年数据时，只有在牛群中开始流行时才是这种情况，而在母猪或绵羊/山羊群中开始流行时，基本表现与去流行一样。结果表明，对应急计划进行定期评估以控制传染病传播的措施是必要的。