Solanum sisymbriifolium is a native plant of South America introduced into Africa, which has detrimental effects on crop yields, and on the environment due to weed control treatment by burning. In South America, S. sisymbriifolium is naturally controlled by the beetle Gratiana spadicea , making this a potential option for its control in Africa. Here, we aim to generate current and future scenarios for the introduction of G. spadicea as a biocontrol agent in Africa, analysing: (i) current and future effective biocontrol areas; (ii) potentially avoided economic losses (AEL), and chemical control costs and savings; and (iii) avoided carbon emissions (ACE) associated with the non‐burning of crop fields. We combine species distribution models (SDM) with land cover maps to estimate current and future effective biocontrol considering Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. We then estimate AEL and ACE using biocontrol, and chemical control costs and savings.

中文翻译：

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作为减少经济损失和碳排放的一种机制的生物控制的当前和未来空间评估：以非洲茄科植物为例。

剑兰茄属（Solanum sisymbriifolium）是引入非洲的南美本地植物，由于通过燃烧进行杂草控制处理，对作物产量和环境具有有害影响。在南美洲，S. sisymbriifolium自然受到甲虫控制Gratiana spadicea，使这里成为其在非洲的控制潜在的选择。在这里，我们旨在为引入G. spadicea生成当前和将来的方案。作为非洲的生物防治剂，分析：（i）当前和未来有效的生物防治领域；（ii）可能避免的经济损失（AEL）以及化学品控制成本和节省；（iii）避免了与非燃烧农田有关的碳排放（ACE）。我们结合物种分布模型（SDM）和土地覆盖图，以考虑代表性浓度途径（RCP）4.5和8.5气候变化情景来估计当前和未来的有效生物防治。然后，我们使用生物防治，化学防治成本和节省来估算AEL和ACE。