The significant capital expense of photovoltaics manufacturing has made it difficult for new cell and module technologies to enter the market. We present two technoeconomic models that analyze the sustainable growth of perovskite manufacturing for an R2R single-junction technology and a perovskite-silicon tandem module, focusing on the impacts of economies of scale and average selling price on profitability. We establish a cost range of $3.30/W to $0.53/W for flexible modules manufactured in factory sizes ranging from 0.3 MW/year to 1 GW/year. In addition, we model the cost to manufacture a tandem module consisting of a single-junction perovskite cell stacked in 4-terminal configuration onto a silicon cell and show how an existing manufacturer can grow at a faster rate by co-investing in tandems. Our analyses highlight potential routes to market for perovskite photovoltaics and the possibility to sustainably grow a photovoltaics manufacturing company even in markets with higher labor rates.

光伏制造的巨额资本支出使新的电池和模块技术难以进入市场。我们提供了两个技术经济模型，用于分析R2R单结技术和钙钛矿-硅串联模块的钙钛矿制造的可持续增长，重点关注规模经济和平均售价对获利能力的影响。对于以工厂规模生产的柔性模块，我们确定的成本范围为0.30美元/瓦至0.53美元/瓦，范围为0.3 MW /年至1 GW /年。此外，我们对制造串联模块的成本进行了建模，该串联模块由4端子配置的单结钙钛矿电池堆叠到硅电池上，并显示了现有制造商如何通过共同投资于双色金属以更快的速度增长。