Understanding the vulnerability of tree species to anthropogenic threats is important for the efficient planning of restoration and conservation efforts. We quantified and compared the effects of future climate change and four current threats (fire, habitat conversion, overgrazing and overexploitation) on the 50 most common tree species of the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru and southern Ecuador. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict species distribution ranges, employed freely accessible spatial datasets to map threat exposures, and developed a trait-based scoring approach to estimate species-specific sensitivities, using differentiated trait weights in accordance with their expected importance in determining species sensitivities to specific threats. Species-specific vulnerability maps were constructed from the product of the exposure maps and the sensitivity estimates. We found that all 50 species face considerable threats, with an average of 46% of species' distribution ranges displaying high or very high vulnerability to at least one of the five threats. Our results suggest that current levels of habitat conversion, overexploitation and overgrazing pose larger threats to most of the studied species than climate change. We present a spatially explicit planning strategy for species-specific restoration and conservation actions, proposing management interventions to focus on (a) in situ conservation of tree populations and seed collection for tree planting activities in areas with low vulnerability to climate change and current threats; (b) ex situ conservation or translocation of populations in areas with high climate change vulnerability; and (c) active planting or assisted regeneration in areas under high current threat vulnerability but low climate change vulnerability, provided that interventions are in place to lower threat pressure. We provide an online, user-friendly tool to visualize both the vulnerability maps and the maps indicating priority restoration and conservation actions.

中文翻译：

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绘制树种易受多种威胁的脆弱性图，作为热带干旱森林恢复和保护的指南。

了解树木物种对人为威胁的脆弱性对于有效规划恢复和保护工作非常重要。我们量化并比较了未来气候变化和四种当前威胁（火灾，生境转换，过度放牧和过度开发）对秘鲁西北部和厄瓜多尔南部热带干旱森林的50种最常见树种的影响。我们使用整体建模方法来预测物种分布范围，使用可自由访问的空间数据集来绘制威胁暴露图，并根据其在确定物种时的预期重要性，使用差异化的特征权重，开发了基于特征的评分方法来评估特定于物种的敏感性。对特定威胁的敏感性。物种特定的脆弱性图是根据暴露图和敏感度估计值的乘积构建的。我们发现，所有50个物种都面临相当大的威胁，平均物种分布范围的46％对这五个威胁中的至少一个显示出很高或非常高的脆弱性。我们的结果表明，与气候变化相比，当前栖息地转换，过度开发和过度放牧对大多数研究物种构成更大的威胁。我们提出了一种针对特定物种的恢复和保护行动的空间明确的规划策略，提出了管理干预措施，重点放在（a）在气候变化和当前威胁的脆弱性较低的地区进行树木种群的原地保护和种子收集以进行植树活动；（b）在易受气候变化影响的地区进行人口的迁地保护或转移；（c）在存在当前威胁脆弱性但气候变化脆弱性较低的地区积极种植或辅助再生，只要采取干预措施降低威胁压力即可。我们提供了一个在线，用户友好的工具，以可视化漏洞图和指示优先级恢复和保护操作的图。