Realistic analysis of structure failures under uncertainties are due to be associated with the use of probabilistic methods. One of the main problems in structural reliability analysis of composite laminate structures is the possible existence of multiple MPP (Most Probable Failure Point). In this work, we propose a numerical inverse technique for the global MPP search as a function of the anisotropy of laminated composites. Therefore, the analysis considers the maximum loading capability of the composite structure for a prescribed reliability level. This is equivalent to solving a target reliability-based design optimization problem. A Bayesian method to estimate the probability of failure based on Monte Carlo simulation provides the validation of the results. The validation process demonstrates that the proposed methodology is adequate to estimate the probability of failure of the laminated composite structures. Furthermore, the paper outlines and discusses the sensitivity of reliability index under maximum loading variability for angle ply composites.

不确定条件下结构破坏的现实分析将与概率方法的使用有关。复合材料层合结构的结构可靠性分析中的主要问题之一是可能存在多个MPP（最可能失效点）。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种用于整体MPP搜索的数值逆技术，该技术是层状复合材料各向异性的函数。因此，分析考虑了规定可靠性水平下复合结构的最大承载能力。这等效于解决基于目标可靠性的设计优化问题。基于蒙特卡洛模拟的贝叶斯估计故障概率的方法提供了结果的验证。验证过程表明，所提出的方法足以估计层压复合结构的失效概率。此外，本文概述并讨论了角铺层复合材料在最大载荷变化下可靠性指标的敏感性。