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A monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period and final size in pairwise epidemic modelling
Journal of Mathematics in Industry Pub Date : 2019-02-01 , DOI: 10.1186/s13362-019-0058-7
Zsolt Vizi , István Z. Kiss , Joel C. Miller , Gergely Röst

For a recently derived pairwise model of network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery, we prove that under some mild technical conditions on the distribution of the infectious periods, smaller variance in the recovery time leads to higher reproduction number, and consequently to a larger epidemic outbreak, when the mean infectious period is fixed. We discuss how this result is related to various stochastic orderings of the distributions of infectious periods. The results are illustrated by a number of explicit stochastic simulations, suggesting that their validity goes beyond regular networks.

中文翻译:

成对流行病建模中传染期变异性与最终规模之间的单调关系

对于最近获得的具有非马尔可夫恢复的网络流行病的成对模型,我们证明在某些温和的技术条件下,传染期的分布,恢复时间的较小变化会导致更高的繁殖数量,从而导致更大的流行病爆发,当平均传染期固定时。我们讨论了这个结果如何与传染期分布的各种随机顺序有关。大量明确的随机模拟结果说明了这一结果,表明其有效性超出了常规网络。
更新日期:2019-02-01
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